Regular Season - 6 · 12 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

PAOK vs Kalamata Super League 1 prediction & result

Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
Referee: Alexandros Katsikogiannis
Full time1 – 3

Final score: PAOK 1-3 Kalamata.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% PAOK, 22% draw, 18% Kalamata — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).

Expected goals: PAOK 2.25, Kalamata 1.01.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Model insights: PAOK vs Kalamata

57%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 10%2-0 10%1-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts PAOK at 60% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PAOK0%Draw1%Kalamata99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
⚽Kenneth Vargas (pen)
43'
Gonzalo Agustín Piñeiro
⚽Cherif Ndiaye
44'
🔁Dimitrios Chatsidisout: Andrija Živković
45'
🔁Giannis Michailidisout: Aritz Elustondo
45'
56'
⚽Kenneth Vargasassist: Julio Alonso
60'
David Kurminowski
•Antonis Tsiftsis
61'
Antonis Tsiftsis
62'
🔁Dimitrios Pelkasout: Dimitrios Monastirlis
63'
66'
⚽David Kurminowskiassist: Julio Alonso
73'
🔁Antônio Josenildo Rodrigues de Oliveiraout: M. Bakayoko
🔁Taison Barcellos Fredaout: Simon Banza
74'
🔁Kristijan Jakićout: Ognjen ugresic
74'
78'
🔁Djibril Diarraout: J. Cataldi
84'
🔁Ahmad Mendes Moreiraout: Argyrios Liatsikouras
84'
🔁Erik Hamzaout: Arnór Sigurðsson
84'
🔁David Kurminowskiout: Josete Miranda
Aritz Elustondo
89'

Match stats — PAOK vs Kalamata

61%Possession39%
19Shots12
5On target6
7Corners2
1.29xG2.37

Goals against chances

PAOK1 from 1.29 xGabout what the chances were worth
Kalamata3 from 2.37 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

PAOK 4-2-3-1
  • 99A. TsiftsisG
  • 3J. KennyD
  • 19Diego CostaD
  • 5G. MichailidisD
  • 21A. BabaD
  • 20C. ZafeirisM
  • 18K. JakićM
  • 52D. ChatsidisM
  • 10D. PelkasM
  • 11TaisonM
  • 27C. NdiayeF
Substitutes
  • 2M. CamaraM
  • 24S. BanzaF
  • 6ElustondoD
  • 13D. GiannoulisD
  • 4P. HatzidiakosD
  • 41D. MonastirlisG
  • 56A. MythouF
  • 7B. SantamaríaM
  • 47S. ShoretireF
Coach: A. Lisci
Kalamata 4-2-3-1
  • 40N. VasiljevićG
  • 22P. KaloutsikidisD
  • 4S. StroungisD
  • 97RodriguesD
  • 17Julio AlonsoD
  • 23G. PiñeiroM
  • 6D. DiarraM
  • 77K. VargasM
  • 24E. HamzaM
  • 20A. Mendes MoreiraM
  • 91D. KurminowskiF
Substitutes
  • 10A. SigurðssonM
  • 11Josete MirandaF
  • 8A. LiatsikourasM
  • 29U. IgnjatovićD
  • 44A. GuessandD
  • 26P. GinisG
  • 1I. GeliosG
  • 12I. ChatzitheodoridisD
  • 7J. CataldiM
Coach: Panagiotis Christofileas

Form going into PAOK vs Kalamata

PAOK

  • W3-1away to Panetolikos20 September 2026
  • W2-0Aris Thessalonikis13 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Panathinaikos6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Atromitos30 August 2026

Kalamata

  • L0-1Panathinaikos20 September 2026
  • W3-1Volos NFC13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Atromitos6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Panetolikos29 August 2026

What these results say

  • PAOK scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • PAOK won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • PAOK conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Kalamata conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Kalamata failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Kalamata had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4PAOK6402138+512
10Kalamata62139907

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PAOK vs Kalamata

  • 12 October 2026PAOK 1–3 KalamataSuper League 1
  • 10 January 2023PAOK 2–0 KalamataCup
  • 14 December 2022Kalamata 0–2 PAOKCup

Leading scorers: PAOK and Kalamata

PAOK

GoalsAssists

  • D. Pelkas30
  • C. Ndiaye30

Kalamata

GoalsAssists

  • K. Vargas30
  • E. Hamza20

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.25 goals for PAOK and 1.01 for Kalamata; the game produced 1 and 3.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Kenneth Vargas 28' (Kalamata), Cherif Ndiaye 44' (PAOK), Kenneth Vargas 56' (Kalamata), David Kurminowski 66' (Kalamata).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives PAOK the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for PAOK against 1.01 for Kalamata. PAOK's attack/defence rating is 1.19/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.3 for Kalamata.