AEK Larnaca
vs
Omonia Aradippou
1. Division prediction & result
Final score: AEK Larnaca 1-0 Omonia Aradippou.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% AEK Larnaca, 26% draw, 14% Omonia Aradippou — fair odds of 1.67, 3.85 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: AEK Larnaca 1.75, Omonia Aradippou 0.58.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
All Cypriot First Division predictions →
Model insights: AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEK Larnaca at 60% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 11R. BajićF
- 92A. PaleariG
- 3M. van der HoornD
- 20J. RepasM
- 17K. PileasD
- 15H. MiličevićM
- 7Gus LedesM
- 14A. LayouniF
- 23S. KöhlerM
- 9Đ. IvanovićF
- 22G. EkpoloD
- 33N. AndereggenF
- 44Z. AdoniD
- 37David GerasimouM
- 2P. IoannouD
- 25C. KyriakouM
- 21MiramónD
- 28K. MrabtiM
- 29G. NaoumM
- 6I. PankovM
- 22M. AntoniouD
- 3A. ChristofiD
- 81V. De MarcoD
- 8A. El BouchataouiM
- 15Unai GarcíaD
- 6N. HavelkaM
- 7M. KoumourisF
- 23Bogdan PetrovicF
- 9G. PontikosF
- 14J. van MullemM
- 12Ž. ŽivkovićG
- 1Gabriel PereiraG
- 93G. Hadzigianni
- 37A. LoizouM
- 27S. LomónacoF
- 77C. MakossoF
- 91K. PanteliD
- 88G. PapacharalampousG
- 47andreas pappoulosF
- 38A. PlumainF
Form going into AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou
AEK Larnaca
- W2-1away to Omonia 29is Maiou18 September 2026
- L0-1Pafos13 September 2026
- W4-1away to Nea Salamis6 September 2026
- W3-1Apoel Nicosia29 August 2026
Omonia Aradippou
- D1-1Olympiakos20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Karmiotissa12 September 2026
- W2-1Krasava Ypsonas5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Omonia Nicosia31 August 2026
What these results say
- AEK Larnaca conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- AEK Larnaca won 3 of these 4 matches.
- AEK Larnaca scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Omonia Aradippou went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Omonia Aradippou failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Omonia Aradippou scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 12 |
| 8 | Omonia Aradippou | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou
- 12 October 2026AEK Larnaca 1–0 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
- 8 August 2026AEK Larnaca 0–1 Omonia AradippouFriendlies Clubs
- 22 February 2026Omonia Aradippou 2–1 AEK Larnaca1. Division
- 9 November 2025AEK Larnaca 1–0 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
- 9 March 2025Omonia Aradippou 2–0 AEK Larnaca1. Division
- 6 December 2024AEK Larnaca 1–0 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.75 goals for AEK Larnaca and 0.58 for Omonia Aradippou; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Nicolas Andereggen 89' (AEK Larnaca).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Larnaca the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for AEK Larnaca against 0.58 for Omonia Aradippou. AEK Larnaca's attack/defence rating is 0.93/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.16 for Omonia Aradippou.