Olympiakos vs Aris 1. Division prediction & result
Final score: Olympiakos 1-2 Aris.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Olympiakos, 27% draw, 28% Aris — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Cypriot First Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympiakos at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 2C. FrantzisD
- 1C. TalichmanidisG
- 77A. VrikkisM
- 24M. TamásD
- 80Miguel Esteves Sancho PedroM
- 23M. PechlivanisF
- 8Bruno PazD
- 26P. KynigopoulosF
- 5Eduardo KundeD
- 12Jean FelipeD
- 55Henrique GomesD
- 4A. DoumasD
- 21Constantinos christouM
- 29K. IrakleousF
- 31georgios kitsiosD
- 32M. KyriakouG
- 11A. LolisF
- 13NhaysonD
- 6Georgios OkkasD
- 10D. ProkopM
- 91M. ZadroG
- 7Anderson CorreiaD
- 27J. BadeljD
- 8C. CharalampousM
- 11R. EffagheF
- 70C. El AllachiM
- 29D. GaustadM
- 30Gustavo PajéM
- 17M. MatysikD
- 22V. NikolićM
- 19Sane mamadouD
- 88C. Fi AkambaM
- 23Bernardo FolhaM
- 21D. GalyataM
- 24G. KaluluD
- 16Oriyomi LebiF
- 5D. LelleD
- 78Denis OvsyannikovF
- 18B. SzakosD
- 1Vaná AlvesG
Form going into Olympiakos vs Aris
Olympiakos
- D1-1away to Omonia Aradippou20 September 2026
- D3-3Omonia 29is Maiou13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Pafos7 September 2026
- D3-3Nea Salamis28 August 2026
Aris
- D0-0Karmiotissa20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Krasava Ypsonas14 September 2026
- L1-4Omonia Nicosia7 September 2026
- D2-2Apollon Limassol29 August 2026
What these results say
- Olympiakos went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Olympiakos did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Olympiakos scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aris failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aris scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Olympiakos | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 |
| 6 | Aris | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Olympiakos vs Aris
- 11 October 2026Olympiakos 1–2 Aris1. Division
- 4 January 2026Olympiakos 0–0 Aris1. Division
- 15 September 2025Aris 2–0 Olympiakos1. Division
- 16 December 2022Olympiakos 0–0 Aris1. Division
- 2 September 2022Aris 5–0 Olympiakos1. Division
- 3 December 2021Aris 1–0 Olympiakos1. Division