Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Aris Thessalonikis 3-2 Volos NFC.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Aris Thessalonikis, 27% draw, 22% Volos NFC — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aris Thessalonikis at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Ricardo VelhoG
- 2J. PétrisD
- 4FabianoD
- 44B. ŠutaloD
- 3O. RichardsD
- 7B. GarréM
- 18M. HonglaM
- 10U. RačićM
- 77BrumaM
- 8C. KouaméF
- 9T. KadewereF
- 41Konstantinos CharoupasM
- 22M. VoriazidisM
- 20T. Dele-BashiruM
- 1S. DioudisG
- 27N. FadigaD
- 6K. GalanopoulosM
- 97F. JensenM
- 21L. MajkićG
- 17Rafa MirF
- 1M. SiampanisG
- 28S. KatsikasD
- 99D. AgyakwaD
- 4G. KargasD
- 24K. LykourinosD
- 27D. BurnićM
- 17V. GrosdisM
- 21M. GonzálezM
- 8M. CombaM
- 7L. LamprouM
- 11Gustavo FurtadoF
- 72E. TasiourasD
- 20Xesc RegisF
- 89F. RefatllariM
- 82Athanasios Papathanasiou GerofokoasG
- 12Y. LodyginG
- 49G. CharalampoglouF
- 5R. CabellaM
- 88K. BareM
Form going into Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC
Aris Thessalonikis
- D0-0Iraklis 190819 September 2026
- L0-2away to PAOK13 September 2026
- L0-5away to AEK Athens FC5 September 2026
- W2-1OFI30 August 2026
Volos NFC
- L1-2AEK Athens FC20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Kalamata13 September 2026
- D1-1Olympiakos Piraeus5 September 2026
- D1-1Iraklis 190829 August 2026
What these results say
- Aris Thessalonikis failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aris Thessalonikis failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aris Thessalonikis conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Volos NFC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Volos NFC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Volos NFC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC
- 11 October 2026Aris Thessalonikis 3–2 Volos NFCSuper League 1
- 13 May 2026Volos NFC 1–2 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 18 April 2026Aris Thessalonikis 3–2 Volos NFCSuper League 1
- 14 February 2026Volos NFC 1–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 23 August 2025Aris Thessalonikis 2–0 Volos NFCSuper League 1
- 1 March 2025Volos NFC 1–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC
Aris Thessalonikis
GoalsAssists
- Fabiano30
- C. Kouamé20
Volos NFC
GoalsAssists
- M. González20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.