Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Olympiakos Piraeus, 33% draw, 32% Panathinaikos — fair odds of 2.86, 3.03 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympiakos Piraeus at 35% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. OrtegaG
- 2M. SaliakasD
- 45P. RetsosD
- 5L. PirolaD
- 71N. TiknizyanD
- 15G. PuertaM
- 19R. FreulerM
- 20Jota SilvaM
- 22ChiquinhoM
- 7K. FortounisM
- 99M. MouandilmadjiF
- 4Z. SmajlovićD
- 73Joel RocaM
- 31B. PopovićG
- 70S. OnyemaechiD
- 6David CarmoD
- 11R. YaremchukF
- 8Gustavo SáM
- 17L. BaileyF
- 10Gelson MartinsM
- 1Iñaki PeñaG
- 2D. CalabriaD
- 6S. de VrijD
- 55R. van DrongelenD
- 77G. KiriakopoulosD
- 20V. TabordaM
- 22E. CamaraM
- 26I. LouzaM
- 10Santino AndinoM
- 7A. TettehF
- 21A. OunahiF
- 12L. ChavesG
- 4Pedro ChirivellaM
- 9C. DessersF
- 99L. GarcíaF
- 8Adriano JagušićM
- 42K. KangwaM
- 70K. KotsarisG
- 14E. Palmer-BrownD
- 28F. PellistriM
Form going into Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos
Olympiakos Piraeus
- W1-0away to Levadiakos20 September 2026
- L0-1OFI12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Volos NFC5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Asteras Tripolis30 August 2026
Panathinaikos
- W1-0away to Kalamata20 September 2026
- W3-0Panetolikos13 September 2026
- W3-1Kifisia10 September 2026
- W3-1PAOK6 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Olympiakos Piraeus had two goals or fewer.
- Olympiakos Piraeus scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Panathinaikos won every one of these 4 matches.
- Panathinaikos scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Panathinaikos had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 13 |
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos
- 11 October 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 13 May 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 19 April 2026Panathinaikos 0–2 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 8 February 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 0–1 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 21 September 2025Panathinaikos 1–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 11 May 2025Panathinaikos 0–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos
Olympiakos Piraeus
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Panathinaikos
GoalsAssists
- V. Taborda31
- A. Tetteh30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.