Catanzaro vs Mantova Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Catanzaro 1-3 Mantova.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Catanzaro, 25% draw, 30% Mantova — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Catanzaro at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Catanzaro vs Mantova
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22M. PigliacelliG
- 24M. RuggeroD
- 4Matias AntoniniD
- 3M. ImperialeD
- 62R. FrosininiM
- 98N. MostiM
- 10J. PetriccioneM
- 93M. DorvalM
- 20S. PafundiM
- 30G. AlesiM
- 9P. IemmelloF
- 91G. ArditiF
- 7N. BusoF
- 27A. CandelaD
- 77M. D'AlessandroF
- 14S. GiovaneM
- 19N. KoffiF
- 1C. MariettaG
- 31E. PecorinoF
- 29F. Di FrancescoF
- 22F. BardiG
- 5B. TomaševićD
- 29S. CellaD
- 27A. CastelliniD
- 41Jonathan SilvaM
- 25L. IgnacchitiM
- 80R. KoudaM
- 50F. Benaissa-YahiaM
- 30D. BragantiniF
- 19F. RuoccoF
- 8R. IlieF
- 11I. CajazzoM
- 58Tommaso Del LungoD
- 12M. GaspariniG
- 1L. GemelloG
- 9E. GliozziF
- 6J. MboyoM
- 18S. KeitaM
- 75E. KošpoD
- 33Cristian MaraiD
Form going into Catanzaro vs Mantova
Catanzaro
- L1-2away to Sampdoria19 September 2026
- W1-0Carrarese12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sudtirol5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Pisa30 August 2026
Mantova
- D2-2Pisa20 September 2026
- W2-0Sampdoria13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cesena6 September 2026
- W3-1Empoli30 August 2026
What these results say
- Catanzaro failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Catanzaro scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Catanzaro conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Mantova went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Mantova scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Mantova conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Catanzaro | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 |
| 2 | Mantova | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Catanzaro vs Mantova
- 11 October 2026Catanzaro 1–3 MantovaSerie B
- 14 February 2026Catanzaro 2–0 MantovaSerie B
- 29 October 2025Mantova 1–3 CatanzaroSerie B
- 13 May 2025Mantova 0–0 CatanzaroSerie B
- 23 November 2024Catanzaro 2–2 MantovaSerie B
Leading scorers: Catanzaro and Mantova
Catanzaro
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Mantova
GoalsAssists
- F. Ruocco50
- V. Vlahović21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.