Regular Season - 33 · 12 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Fortaleza EC vs CRB Serie B prediction & result

Estadio Castelão, Fortaleza
Referee: Davi de Oliveira Lacerda, Brazil
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Fortaleza EC 2-2 CRB.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Fortaleza EC, 22% draw, 20% CRB — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: Fortaleza EC 2.39, CRB 1.20.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Model insights: Fortaleza EC vs CRB

64%
Both teams to score
70%
Over 2.5 goals
30%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 9%1-1 8%2-0 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Fortaleza EC at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Luiz Fernando
11'
⚽Maíltonassist: Juan Camilo Cantillo
11'
42'
⚽ Thiago Fernandes Rodrigues
⚽Pedro Castro (OG)
45'
🔁Rodrigo Oliveira dos Santosout: Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza
45'
🔁Luiz Fernandoout: Vitor Ferreira
50'
54'
⚽Crystopher
🔁Juan Camilo Cantilloout: Nathan Fogaça
60'
🔁Lucas Sashaout: Lucas Crispim
60'
65'
🔁 Thiago Fernandes Rodriguesout: Vinicius Barata
🔁Pedro Henriqueout: Welliton Silva de Azevedo Matheus
73'
Nathan Fogaça
75'
78'
🔁Daniel Sampaio Simõesout: Geovane
78'
🔁Mikaelout: Douglas Baggio
90'
🔁Dadá Belmonteout: Ygor Catatau
90'
🔁Pedro Castroout: Luizão
Lucas Crispim
90+5'

Match stats — Fortaleza EC vs CRB

49%Possession51%
7Shots5
1On target2
6Corners11
0xG0

Goals against chances

Fortaleza EC2 from 0.00 xGmore than the chances were worth
CRB2 from 0.00 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fortaleza EC 4-3-3
  • 1João RicardoG
  • 22MaíltonD
  • 3Lucas GazalD
  • 6T. CardonaD
  • 13Maurício Júnior Lima RodriguesD
  • 88Lucas SashaM
  • 8RonaldM
  • 29RodrigoM
  • 21J. CantilloF
  • 32Luiz FernandoF
  • 16Pedro HenriqueF
Substitutes
  • 11VitinhoF
  • 17Nathan FogaçaF
  • 20JaílsonM
  • 38LuccaM
  • 75RodriguinhoM
  • 77Paulo BayaF
  • 31WellitonF
  • 25Vinícius SilvestreG
  • 10Lucas CrispimM
Coach: Paulo Autuori
CRB 4-1-4-1
  • 1Vitor CaetanoG
  • 32HeredaD
  • 33LynconD
  • 22BressanD
  • 36Lucas LovatD
  • 21Pedro CastroM
  • 17ThiaguinhoM
  • 8CrystopherM
  • 10DanielM
  • 97Dadá BelmonteM
  • 28MikaelF
Substitutes
  • 20Vinicius BarataF
  • 50LuizãoM
  • 26EstevãoM
  • 12MatheusG
  • 16MayconD
  • 27Fábio AlemãoD
  • 9João NetoF
  • 18GeovaneM
  • 7Douglas BaggioF
Coach: Fábio Matias

Form going into Fortaleza EC vs CRB

Fortaleza EC

  • W1-0away to America Mineiro7 October 2026
  • D1-1Nautico Recife3 October 2026
  • D2-2Athletic Club MG27 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Londrina20 September 2026

CRB

  • W3-1Atletico Goianiense7 October 2026
  • L1-3away to São Bernardo2 October 2026
  • W3-0Cuiaba27 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Ponte Preta20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Fortaleza EC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Fortaleza EC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Fortaleza EC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • CRB scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • CRB conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for CRB had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Fortaleza EC33151263929+1057
7CRB33157115147+452

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fortaleza EC vs CRB

  • 12 October 2026Fortaleza EC 2–2 CRBSerie B
  • 21 June 2026CRB 1–1 Fortaleza ECSerie B
  • 14 May 2026CRB 0–0 Fortaleza ECCopa Do Brasil
  • 22 April 2026Fortaleza EC 2–1 CRBCopa Do Brasil
  • 27 March 2025Fortaleza EC 0–1 CRBCopa do Nordeste
  • 9 June 2024CRB 2–0 Fortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste

Leading scorers: Fortaleza EC and CRB

Fortaleza EC

GoalsAssists

  • Maílton82

CRB

GoalsAssists

  • Mikael164
  • Crystopher67

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.39 goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.20 for CRB; the game produced 2 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Maílton 11' (Fortaleza EC), Thiago Fernandes Rodrigues 42' (CRB), Pedro Castro 45' (Fortaleza EC), Crystopher 54' (CRB).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Fortaleza EC the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Fortaleza EC against 1.20 for CRB. Fortaleza EC's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.86 for CRB.