Universidad de Chile
vs
Nublense
Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Universidad de Chile 6-0 Nublense.
Before kick-off the model made it 68% Universidad de Chile, 20% draw, 12% Nublense — fair odds of 1.47, 5.00 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Universidad de Chile 2.43, Nublense 0.75.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
All Chilean Primera División predictions →
Model insights: Universidad de Chile vs Nublense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universidad de Chile at 68% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universidad de Chile vs Nublense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25G. CastellónG
- 3I. LichnovskyD
- 22M. ZaldiviaD
- 5N. RamírezD
- 14M. MoralesD
- 20C. AránguizM
- 15T. ReinhartM
- 7M. GuerreroM
- 28A. ArceM
- 23I. VásquezM
- 11E. VargasF
- 32G. AñasgoM
- 8I. PobleteM
- 18J. LuceroF
- 17F. HormazábalF
- 6N. FernándezD
- 21M. DíazM
- 19J. AltamiranoM
- 1C. ToselliG
- 26Matias RiquelmeM
- 1N. PérezG
- 6P. CalderónD
- 5F. CamposD
- 15S. ValenciaD
- 8G. GracianiM
- 21L. ReyesM
- 28M. RiveraM
- 14J. CampusanoM
- 10M. PlazaF
- 20I. JeraldinoF
- 26E. CalderónF
- 22A. ValdésM
- 18D. CéspedesM
- 23J. GonzalezF
- 11L. MolinaF
- 25H. MuñozG
- 7F. OvelarF
- 9F. RamiF
- 13D. SaavedraM
- 3C. SalomónD
Form going into Universidad de Chile vs Nublense
Universidad de Chile
- W3-0away to Deportes La Serena13 September 2026
- W4-2Coquimbo Unido6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Universidad de Concepcion30 August 2026
- L1-2Colo Colo23 August 2026
Nublense
- L1-3Everton de Vina12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Deportes La Serena6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Deportes Limache3 September 2026
- L0-1Concepción30 August 2026
What these results say
- Universidad de Chile scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Universidad de Chile had three goals or more.
- Universidad de Chile conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Nublense did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Nublense conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 45 |
| 9 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad de Chile vs Nublense
- 12 October 2026Universidad de Chile 6–0 NublensePrimera División
- 12 April 2026Nublense 1–0 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 20 July 2025Nublense 2–2 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 15 February 2025Universidad de Chile 5–0 NublensePrimera División
- 20 November 2024Universidad de Chile 1–0 NublenseCopa Chile
- 3 November 2024Nublense 1–4 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
Leading scorers: Universidad de Chile and Nublense
Universidad de Chile
GoalsAssists
- E. Vargas93
- A. Arce63
Nublense
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.43 goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.75 for Nublense; the game produced 6 and 0.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Maximiliano Guerrero 13' (Universidad de Chile), Maximiliano Guerrero 37' (Universidad de Chile), Agustín Arce 55' (Universidad de Chile), Gonzalo Ezequiel Reyna 73' (Universidad de Chile), Eduardo Vargas 75' (Universidad de Chile), Fabián Hormazabal 86' (Universidad de Chile).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universidad de Chile the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Universidad de Chile against 0.75 for Nublense. Universidad de Chile's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.73 for Nublense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.