Criciuma
vs
America Mineiro
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Criciuma 1-0 America Mineiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Criciuma, 26% draw, 15% America Mineiro — fair odds of 1.69, 3.85 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Criciuma 1.77, America Mineiro 0.65.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Model insights: Criciuma vs America Mineiro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Criciuma at 59% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Criciuma vs America Mineiro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32AirtonG
- 13WaguininhoD
- 37César MartinsD
- 97Willean LepoD
- 4Luciano CastánD
- 22Marcelo HermesD
- 14RonaldM
- 8Guilherme LoboM
- 7Fellipe MateusM
- 10Jhonata RobertF
- 9NicolasF
- 33YuriF
- 34Bruno AlvesD
- 77Diego GonçalvesF
- 5EduardoM
- 31Hiago Accinelli da RozaM
- 41Jean IrmerM
- 6MarcinhoD
- 91R. OteroM
- 11RomarinhoF
- 91Bruno BrígidoG
- 4Rafael BarcelosD
- 45Ricardo SilvaD
- 3L. SosaD
- 25T. OstchegaD
- 88BarretoM
- 93J. JiménezM
- 20Paulo VictorM
- 77M. SegoviaM
- 30L. MontesM
- 9WillianF
- 55Otavio GoncalvesM
- 7Guilherme ParedeF
- 8Felipe AmaralM
- 5F. ElizariM
- 27CássioG
- 71Cristian Do Espirito Santo RodriguesD
- 32FilipeD
- 99Marcelo MacolaF
- 37Cesar Leme Do Nascimento JulioM
Form going into Criciuma vs America Mineiro
Criciuma
- L0-1away to Ceara8 October 2026
- W2-0away to Londrina2 October 2026
- W3-0Avai27 September 2026
- L0-2Operario-PR22 September 2026
America Mineiro
- L0-1Fortaleza EC7 October 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Goianiense3 October 2026
- L0-1Juventude28 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vila Nova18 September 2026
What these results say
- 3 of these 4 matches for Criciuma had two goals or fewer.
- America Mineiro did not win any of these 4 matches.
- America Mineiro failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
- America Mineiro conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Criciuma | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 28 | +6 | 56 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 33 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 54 | -33 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Criciuma vs America Mineiro
- 12 October 2026Criciuma 1–0 America MineiroSerie B
- 23 June 2026America Mineiro 0–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 12 October 2025Criciuma 2–1 America MineiroSerie B
- 21 June 2025America Mineiro 1–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 10 June 2021Criciuma 2–2 America MineiroCopa Do Brasil
- 3 June 2021America Mineiro 0–0 CriciumaCopa Do Brasil
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.77 goals for Criciuma and 0.65 for America Mineiro; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: César Martins 49' (Criciuma).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Criciuma the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Criciuma against 0.65 for America Mineiro. Criciuma's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/2.01 for America Mineiro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.