Novorizontino
vs
Ponte Preta
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Novorizontino 5-1 Ponte Preta.
Before kick-off the model made it 88% Novorizontino, 9% draw, 3% Ponte Preta — fair odds of 1.14, 11.11 and 33.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Novorizontino 3.86, Ponte Preta 0.50.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Novorizontino at 88% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 3 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 93JordiG
- 2MadsonD
- 3CarlinhosD
- 4PatrickD
- 5SanderD
- 50JuninhoM
- 6Luis OyamaM
- 7Ronald BarcellosM
- 10RomuloM
- 30Nicolas CarecaM
- 9CarlãoF
- 24J. LoraD
- 40Jardiel Maciel Libertino da SilvaM
- 66MaykonD
- 8C. OrtízF
- 15TavinhoF
- 22A. AlvariñoM
- 27Diego MathiasF
- 19Diego GaloM
- 14Eduardo BrockD
- 30ViniciusG
- 23S. PalaciosD
- 15Gabriel Caran de OliveiraD
- 44Gustavo AlmeidaD
- 6JuanM
- 5Rodrigo SouzaM
- 22DenisM
- 14Danilo BarcelosM
- 18David da HoraM
- 19Jonathan CafúM
- 9BrandãoF
- 20Thevyn Dos Anjos SouzaF
- 1Guilherme VianaG
- 7Emanuell Silva FerreiraF
- 21Vitor Ribeiro FernandesF
- 2Ryan Henrique Pereira AndradeM
- 35Gustavo LopesM
- 32Felipe Di Mauro Reis CoutinhoD
- 16KarlM
- 17Nicolas SilvaM
Form going into Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
Novorizontino
- W2-0away to Nautico Recife8 October 2026
- W3-0Goias2 October 2026
- D0-0São Bernardo25 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ceara18 September 2026
Ponte Preta
- L0-2Juventude7 October 2026
- L0-2away to Cuiaba3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Botafogo SP29 September 2026
- W1-0CRB20 September 2026
What these results say
- Novorizontino scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Novorizontino kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Ponte Preta had two goals or fewer.
- Ponte Preta failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Ponte Preta failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 59 | 28 | +31 | 60 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 73 | -55 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
- 12 October 2026Novorizontino 5–1 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 22 June 2026Ponte Preta 0–2 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 15 January 2025Novorizontino 0–1 Ponte PretaPaulista - A1
- 1 October 2024Novorizontino 2–1 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 15 June 2024Ponte Preta 1–0 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 3 March 2024Ponte Preta 1–1 NovorizontinoPaulista - A1
Leading scorers: Novorizontino and Ponte Preta
Novorizontino
GoalsAssists
- Robson155
- Romulo119
Ponte Preta
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 3.86 goals for Novorizontino and 0.50 for Ponte Preta; the game produced 5 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ronald Barcellos Arantes 11' (Novorizontino), Juninho 25' (Novorizontino), Danilo 45' (Ponte Preta), Romulo Azevedo Simão 45' (Novorizontino), Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito 81' (Novorizontino), Eduardo Brock 90' (Novorizontino).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Novorizontino the highest probability at 88%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.86 expected goals for Novorizontino against 0.50 for Ponte Preta. Novorizontino's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.33/2.86 for Ponte Preta.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.