Aarhus
vs
Sonderjyske
Superliga prediction & result
Final score: Aarhus 3-0 Sonderjyske.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Aarhus, 22% draw, 21% Sonderjyske — fair odds of 1.75, 4.55 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Aarhus 2.31, Sonderjyske 1.21.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Aarhus vs Sonderjyske
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aarhus at 57% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aarhus vs Sonderjyske
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. HansenG
- 14T. MølgaardD
- 5F. TingagerD
- 3D. GrétarssonD
- 29R. CarstensenM
- 4M. KnudsenM
- 10Kristian Fredrik Malt ArnstadM
- 39Frederik EmmeryM
- 31T. BechM
- 23M. AndersonM
- 13J. SerraF
- 28J. BogereF
- 26J. AndersenD
- 21M. Hedenstad ChristiansenG
- 19E. KahlD
- 18C. McCowattM
- 25C. RöslerD
- 7M. SolbakkenM
- 27S. TchamcheF
- 8S. JørgensenM
- 24N. ShintonG
- 3A. MunksgaardD
- 12M. SoulasD
- 25B. BjarnasonD
- 19P. KristensenD
- 17A. HoegM
- 10M. OlesenM
- 31I. SeydiM
- 8M. HaidaraM
- 7S. EminiM
- 11O. De RosarioF
- 14T. HaltvikM
- 30G. WagnerD
- 1N. FløG
- 34Elias Hjort- PedersenM
- 9M. HoppeF
- 21S. VelkovD
- 22A. OggesenM
- 26B. TambedouF
- 33J. ChristensenM
Form going into Aarhus vs Sonderjyske
Aarhus
- D2-2away to AC Horsens20 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Nordsjaelland13 September 2026
- D2-2Silkeborg5 September 2026
- L0-2FC Midtjylland2 September 2026
Sonderjyske
- W4-2Randers FC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lyngby13 September 2026
- L2-5AC Horsens6 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Copenhagen31 August 2026
What these results say
- Aarhus did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Aarhus conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sonderjyske scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sonderjyske conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Sonderjyske.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aarhus | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aarhus vs Sonderjyske
- 12 October 2026Aarhus 3–0 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 3 May 2026Aarhus 2–1 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 15 March 2026Sonderjyske 1–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 9 November 2025Aarhus 2–3 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 29 October 2025Aarhus 2–1 SonderjyskeDBU Pokalen
- 20 July 2025Sonderjyske 1–1 AarhusSuperliga
Leading scorers: Aarhus and Sonderjyske
Aarhus
GoalsAssists
- J. Serra40
- C. McCowatt32
Sonderjyske
GoalsAssists
- M. Haidara40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.31 goals for Aarhus and 1.21 for Sonderjyske; the game produced 3 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Kristian Arnstad 9' (Aarhus), Janni Serra 15' (Aarhus), Frederik Tingager 38' (Aarhus).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aarhus the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Aarhus against 1.21 for Sonderjyske. Aarhus's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.65 for Sonderjyske.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.