America de Cali
vs
Independiente Medellin
Primera A prediction & result
Final score: America de Cali 1-2 Independiente Medellin.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% America de Cali, 27% draw, 22% Independiente Medellin — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: America de Cali 1.67, Independiente Medellin 0.91.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts America de Cali at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1JeanG
- 13M. CastilloD
- 24C. TovarD
- 3D. RoseroD
- 14M. MinaD
- 15R. CarrascalM
- 5J. EscobarM
- 23L. QuiñonesM
- 10Y. GuzmánM
- 88T. PalaciosM
- 21T. ÁngelF
- 17J. LucumíF
- 36Jhordy CamachoF
- 30O. BertelD
- 29C. AmuM
- 12J. MontoyaG
- 18Y. QuinteroM
- 2M. TorresD
- 77E. TortoleroM
- 9J. ValenciaF
- 25E. ChauxG
- 26E. MenaD
- 39L. EscorciaD
- 5J. VarelaD
- 18F. FabraD
- 30H. PalaciosM
- 16H. LoboaM
- 6D. MorenoM
- 11Y. GonzálezM
- 10D. CatañoF
- 32C. LucumiF
- 19A. SimarraD
- 24N. ErazoM
- 1S. IchazoG
- 34K. KlingerM
- 90E. LarrosaF
- 4K. MantillaD
- 20J. MontañoF
- 31D. MorenoM
- 14B. PerlazaM
Form going into America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
- W2-1away to Llaneros5 October 2026
- W1-0Águilas Doradas24 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportes Tolima20 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Pasto15 September 2026
Independiente Medellin
- L0-1Santa Fe6 October 2026
- D2-2Millonarios30 September 2026
- L0-2away to Junior27 September 2026
- W2-1Jaguares22 September 2026
What these results say
- America de Cali scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- America de Cali conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for America de Cali had two goals or fewer.
- Independiente Medellin conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Independiente Medellin failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 27 |
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin
- 12 October 2026America de Cali 1–2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 30 March 2026Independiente Medellin 2–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 2 December 2025Independiente Medellin 1–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 27 November 2025America de Cali 2–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 14 November 2025Independiente Medellin 3–0 America de CaliPrimera A
- 20 June 2025America de Cali 1–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
Leading scorers: America de Cali and Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
GoalsAssists
- Y. Guzmán186
Independiente Medellin
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.67 goals for America de Cali and 0.91 for Independiente Medellin; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Luis Quiñones 7' (America de Cali), Luis Escorcia 24' (Independiente Medellin), Carlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez 84' (Independiente Medellin).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives America de Cali the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for America de Cali against 0.91 for Independiente Medellin. America de Cali's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.46 for Independiente Medellin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.