Atalanta
vs
Venezia
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atalanta 3-1 Venezia.
Before kick-off the model made it 68% Atalanta, 20% draw, 12% Venezia — fair odds of 1.47, 5.00 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Atalanta 2.44, Venezia 0.78.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Atalanta vs Venezia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atalanta at 68% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atalanta vs Venezia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 16R. BellanovaD
- 31T. KristensenD
- 42G. ScalviniD
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 19F. KessiéM
- 13ÉdersonM
- 99E. ElmasM
- 17C. De KetelaereM
- 11J. RoweM
- 90N. KrstovićF
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 57M. SportielloG
- 51M. SonzogniG
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 10L. SamardžićM
- 18G. RaspadoriF
- 8Mario PasalicM
- 40R. ObriÄD
- 23S. KolašinacD
- 1F. StankovićG
- 25R. HalhalD
- 15Juan JesusD
- 2M. MorenoD
- 18A. HainautM
- 71Kike PérezM
- 19S. SohmM
- 26T. BašićM
- 14Thierry CorreiaM
- 10J. YeboahF
- 45A. AdamsF
- 77Toni FernándezM
- 3J. SchingtienneD
- 95A. GomesD
- 5R. HapsD
- 21Þ. HelgasonM
- 29L. LauberbachF
- 56K. LismanF
- 16R. MohammedD
- 96L. MontipòG
Form going into Atalanta vs Venezia
Atalanta
- L0-2away to Juventus20 September 2026
- L1-2Cagliari12 September 2026
- L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna31 August 2026
Venezia
- L0-2Lazio19 September 2026
- L2-4Fiorentina11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Frosinone6 September 2026
- L0-2away to AC Milan28 August 2026
What these results say
- Atalanta failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atalanta scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atalanta conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Venezia did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Venezia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Venezia
- 12 October 2026Atalanta 3–1 VeneziaSerie A
- 1 March 2025Atalanta 0–0 VeneziaSerie A
- 20 October 2024Venezia 0–2 AtalantaSerie A
- 23 April 2022Venezia 1–3 AtalantaSerie A
- 12 January 2022Atalanta 2–0 VeneziaCoppa Italia
- 30 November 2021Atalanta 4–0 VeneziaSerie A
Leading scorers: Atalanta and Venezia
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović31
Venezia
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.44 goals for Atalanta and 0.78 for Venezia; the game produced 3 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Franck Kessié 4' (Atalanta), Nikola Krstović 6' (Atalanta), Nikola Krstović 30' (Atalanta), Antoine Hainaut 37' (Venezia).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atalanta the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Atalanta against 0.78 for Venezia. Atalanta's attack/defence rating is 1.17/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.5 for Venezia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.