RB Bragantino
vs
Cruzeiro
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: RB Bragantino 4-2 Cruzeiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% RB Bragantino, 27% draw, 32% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: RB Bragantino 1.52, Cruzeiro 1.27.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Model insights: RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts RB Bragantino at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18Tiago VolpiG
- 52Ryan TavaresD
- 16Gustavo MarquesD
- 2Guzmán RodríguezD
- 29Juninho CapixabaD
- 7Eric RamiresM
- 5FabinhoM
- 21Lucas BarbosaM
- 47WallaceM
- 11FernandoM
- 8Eduardo SashaF
- 35Matheus FernandesM
- 6GabrielM
- 3Eduardo SantosD
- 19BruninhoF
- 32J. HerreraF
- 17ViniciusF
- 9I. PittaF
- 22GustavinhoM
- 23A. Sant'AnnaD
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 12WilliamD
- 43João MarceloD
- 34JonathanD
- 27G. RojasD
- 5Zé LucasM
- 8GersonM
- 99K. ArroyoM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 38Felipe MoraisM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 20Wesley GassovaF
- 11MarquinhosF
- 1CássioG
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 97L. RodríguezF
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 70KenjiF
Form going into RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro
RB Bragantino
- D1-1Mirassol7 October 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Mineiro3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Flamengo20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Botafogo12 September 2026
Cruzeiro
- W2-0Sao Paulo8 October 2026
- W3-1away to Vitoria20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos13 September 2026
- W3-1Atletico Paranaense6 September 2026
What these results say
- RB Bragantino did not win any of these 4 matches.
- RB Bragantino conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- RB Bragantino scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Cruzeiro won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cruzeiro conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 46 | 44 | +2 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro
- 13 October 2026RB Bragantino 4–2 CruzeiroSerie A
- 12 April 2026Cruzeiro 2–1 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 21 September 2025Cruzeiro 2–1 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 20 April 2025RB Bragantino 1–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 22 March 2025RB Bragantino 1–1 CruzeiroFriendlies Clubs
- 1 December 2024RB Bragantino 1–1 CruzeiroSerie A
Leading scorers: RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro
RB Bragantino
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Matheus Pereira95
- Kaio Jorge82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.52 goals for RB Bragantino and 1.27 for Cruzeiro; the game produced 4 and 2.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Lucas Henrique Barbosa 13' (RB Bragantino), Kaio Jorge 20' (RB Bragantino), Eric Ramires 30' (RB Bragantino), Zé Lucas 43' (Cruzeiro), Matheus Henrique 89' (Cruzeiro), Jose Herrera 90' (RB Bragantino).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Bragantino the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for RB Bragantino against 1.27 for Cruzeiro. RB Bragantino's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.13 for Cruzeiro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.