Coritiba
vs
Botafogo
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Coritiba, 27% draw, 33% Botafogo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Coritiba 1.57, Botafogo 1.40.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Coritiba vs Botafogo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Coritiba at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Coritiba vs Botafogo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Pedro LuccasG
- 14F. BustosD
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 55JacyD
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 19S. GómezM
- 32Pedro RochaM
- 10JosuéM
- 7J. LavegaM
- 18Paulo RobertoF
- 2TingaD
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 5N. FonsecaM
- 17B. OcampoF
- 3MaiconD
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 99Rodrigo RodriguesF
- 66Rodrigo GeladoD
- 39GustavoM
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 2VitinhoD
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 21MarçalD
- 13Alex TellesD
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 25AllanM
- 22H. ZiyechM
- 6C. MedinaM
- 11Matheus MartinsM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 37K. BarriaF
- 91Domingos AndradeM
- 90DaniloF
- 75HuguinhoM
- 7Júnior SantosF
- 34G. JustinoD
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 29PaulinhoD
Form going into Coritiba vs Botafogo
Coritiba
- L0-4away to Fluminense9 October 2026
- L0-5away to Vasco da Gama19 September 2026
- D3-3Atletico Paranaense12 September 2026
- L1-2Mirassol6 September 2026
Botafogo
- L1-2Vasco da Gama7 October 2026
- L0-2away to Mirassol19 September 2026
- W3-2Gremio16 September 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino12 September 2026
What these results say
- Coritiba did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Coritiba conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Coritiba had three goals or more.
- Botafogo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Botafogo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Botafogo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 39 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Botafogo
- 12 October 2026Coritiba 1–1 BotafogoSerie A
- 12 April 2026Botafogo 2–2 CoritibaSerie A
- 30 November 2023Coritiba 1–1 BotafogoSerie A
- 30 July 2023Botafogo 4–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 17 September 2022Botafogo 2–0 CoritibaSerie A
- 29 May 2022Coritiba 1–0 BotafogoSerie A
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Botafogo
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha81
- Breno Lopes81
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
- Arthur Cabral71
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.57 goals for Coritiba and 1.40 for Botafogo; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Marçal 22' (Coritiba), Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira 34' (Botafogo).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Coritiba the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Coritiba against 1.40 for Botafogo. Coritiba's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.21 for Botafogo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.