Gimnasia Mendoza
vs
Newell's Old Boys
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Gimnasia Mendoza 1-0 Newell's Old Boys.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Gimnasia Mendoza, 31% draw, 27% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Gimnasia Mendoza 1.21, Newell's Old Boys 0.86.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Newell's Old Boys
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimnasia Mendoza at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gimnasia Mendoza vs Newell's Old Boys
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23C. RigamontiG
- 32L. ParedesD
- 2D. MondinoD
- 4E. MuñozD
- 3M. RecaldeD
- 30E. FernándezM
- 21F. AntoniniM
- 26F. LencioniM
- 8M. VargasM
- 7L. CingolaniM
- 9A. MódicaF
- 27B. ArmoaF
- 5N. BarbozaM
- 42L. CarreraM
- 19J. CeballosM
- 22J. FrancoD
- 16G. GuiffreyD
- 31L. PetruchiG
- 11S. RodríguezF
- 35V. SimoniF
- 30J. ReinattiG
- 6M. OrtegaD
- 25B. CabreraD
- 16L. CarrizoD
- 24F. EscobarD
- 5L. RegiardoM
- 20Facundo GauchM
- 26R. HerreraM
- 7W. MazzanttiF
- 9M. CóccaroF
- 32S. SolariF
- 27L. GómezM
- 23N. GoiteaD
- 19J. MattarM
- 4A. MonteroM
- 33W. NúñezF
- 99I. RamírezF
- 28J. RussoF
- 39T. RiosF
- 22O. SalomónD
Form going into Gimnasia Mendoza vs Newell's Old Boys
Gimnasia Mendoza
- L0-3away to Estudiantes La Plata5 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Riestra19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Defensa Y Justicia11 September 2026
- D2-2Boca Juniors5 September 2026
Newell's Old Boys
- D0-0Lanus3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Platense20 September 2026
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rosario Central6 September 2026
What these results say
- Gimnasia Mendoza did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Gimnasia Mendoza failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Gimnasia Mendoza conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Newell's Old Boys went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Newell's Old Boys had two goals or fewer.
- Newell's Old Boys failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Newell's Old Boys
- 12 October 2026Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 March 2026Newell's Old Boys 1–0 Gimnasia MendozaLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Gimnasia Mendoza and Newell's Old Boys
Gimnasia Mendoza
GoalsAssists
- A. Módica130
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.21 goals for Gimnasia Mendoza and 0.86 for Newell's Old Boys; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Agustín Módica 58' (Gimnasia Mendoza).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimnasia Mendoza the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Gimnasia Mendoza against 0.86 for Newell's Old Boys. Gimnasia Mendoza's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.2 for Newell's Old Boys.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.