Talleres Cordoba
vs
Independiente
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Talleres Cordoba 0-0 Independiente.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Talleres Cordoba, 32% draw, 32% Independiente — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Talleres Cordoba 1.08, Independiente 0.97.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Talleres Cordoba vs Independiente
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Talleres Cordoba at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Talleres Cordoba vs Independiente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32E. UnsainG
- 20A. SchottD
- 4M. CatalánD
- 6R. RiquelmeD
- 23G. BáezD
- 8F. FattoriM
- 5M. GalarzaM
- 37RickM
- 10G. BaroniM
- 11V. DepietriM
- 49V. DávilaF
- 7D. ValoyesF
- 31B. TreyM
- 15J. SforzaM
- 39L. F. OrtizM
- 1S. BarbiG
- 2T. ChamorroD
- 36E. ChiavassaF
- 19F. CristaldoM
- 26M. CaceresM
- 33R. ReyG
- 4S. AriasD
- 36S. ValdezD
- 35J. ArrayagoD
- 5N. BanegasD
- 16M. PerezM
- 23I. MarconeM
- 7S. MontielM
- 10L. CabralM
- 19M. AbaldoM
- 6E. ÁvilaF
- 13J. FedorcoD
- 20Facundo CruzM
- 29L. GodoyD
- 39R. MartinoD
- 32D. MartínezM
- 77S. MeleG
- 14Lautaro MillánM
- 9I. MoralesF
- 24J. PalaisM
Form going into Talleres Cordoba vs Independiente
Talleres Cordoba
- L0-1Belgrano Cordoba4 October 2026
- L1-3away to Instituto Cordoba20 September 2026
- W2-1Union Santa Fe12 September 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo5 September 2026
Independiente
- L1-4Instituto Cordoba2 October 2026
- W2-1away to Union Santa Fe19 September 2026
- D1-1San Lorenzo13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago6 September 2026
What these results say
- Talleres Cordoba conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Talleres Cordoba failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Independiente scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Independiente conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Independiente.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Talleres Cordoba | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 9 |
| 7 | Independiente | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Talleres Cordoba vs Independiente
- 12 October 2026Talleres Cordoba 0–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 March 2026Independiente 1–2 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 July 2025Independiente 1–2 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 January 2025Talleres Cordoba 2–3 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 May 2024Independiente 1–3 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 April 2024Independiente 2–2 Talleres CordobaCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Talleres Cordoba and Independiente
Talleres Cordoba
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Talleres Cordoba carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.62 for Independiente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Talleres Cordoba and 0.97 for Independiente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Talleres Cordoba rate 0.69 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Independiente rate 0.80 and 1.27.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Independiente, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Talleres Cordoba a 0% chance of the title and Independiente 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Talleres Cordoba the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Talleres Cordoba against 0.97 for Independiente. Talleres Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.27 for Independiente.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.