Clausura - 12 · 12 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Ciudad de Lanus, Buenos Aires
Referee: Sebastian Nicolas Martinez
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Lanus 2-0 Velez Sarsfield.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Lanus, 31% draw, 25% Velez Sarsfield — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).

Expected goals: Lanus 1.26, Velez Sarsfield 0.81.

Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield

41%
Both teams to score
34%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 15%1-1 14%0-0 13%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lanus at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Lucas Robertone
19'
Thiago Aguirre
34'
Rodrigo Aliendro
57'
🔁Thiago Aguirreout: Diego Valdés
⚽Sasha Julian Marcichassist: Lucas Agustín Besozzi
59'
🔁Allan Steven Wlk Duréout: Yoshan Valois
67'
🔁Lucas Agustín Besozziout: Matías Sepúlveda
67'
Carlos Izquierdoz
73'
74'
🔁Matias Ariasout: Dilan Godoy
74'
🔁Juan Cruz Policellaout: Simón Escobar
🔁Marcelino Morenoout: Ramiro Carrera
81'
🔁Eduardo Salvioout: Gonzalo Thomás Lobos
81'
Ramiro Carrera
88'
90+1'
🔁Lucas Robertoneout: Luca Feler
90+1'
🔁Elías Gómezout: Lautaro Piola
🔁Diego Agustín Medinaout: Gonzalo German Perez Corbalan
90+4'
⚽Tomás Marchiori (OG)
90+5'

Match stats — Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield

48%Possession52%
16Shots10
6On target3
5Corners6
1.65xG0.62

Goals against chances

Lanus2 from 1.65 xGabout what the chances were worth
Velez Sarsfield0 from 0.62 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lanus 4-2-3-1
  • 26N. LosadaG
  • 33T. GuidaraD
  • 24C. IzquierdozD
  • 13J. CanaleD
  • 6S. MarcichD
  • 17A. MedinaM
  • 30A. CardozoM
  • 77L. BesozziM
  • 10M. MorenoM
  • 11E. SalvioM
  • 20A. WlkF
Substitutes
  • 23R. CarreraM
  • 35R. De JesúsD
  • 15R. LoaizaM
  • 42G. LobosF
  • 3N. MorgantiniD
  • 1F. PetroliG
  • 5F. PeñaM
  • 4G. PérezD
  • 16M. SepúlvedaM
Coach: M. Pellegrino
Velez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. MarchioriG
  • 4J. GarcíaD
  • 32Thiago SilveorD
  • 16L. MagallánD
  • 3Elías GómezD
  • 29R. AliendroM
  • 8L. RobertoneM
  • 35M. AriasM
  • 37J. PolicellaM
  • 39T. AguirreM
  • 77R. MartínezF
Substitutes
  • 46Ulises PiedrabuenaD
  • 47A. PereyraD
  • 21Jano GordonD
  • 15D. GodoyF
  • 48Luca FelerM
  • 18S. EscobarD
  • 19L. CristaldoD
  • 5C. BaezaM
  • 30L. PiolaF
Coach: Guillermo Barros Schelotto

Form going into Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield

Lanus

  • D0-0away to Newell's Old Boys3 October 2026
  • W2-1Estudiantes La Plata22 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Deportivo Riestra14 September 2026
  • W1-0Defensa Y Justicia6 September 2026

Velez Sarsfield

  • D2-2Platense5 October 2026
  • W3-2Tigre21 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Newell's Old Boys11 September 2026
  • W1-0Estudiantes La Plata6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Lanus went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Lanus won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Lanus scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Velez Sarsfield went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Velez Sarsfield scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Velez Sarsfield conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Lanus12624159+620
4Velez Sarsfield125611713+421

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield

  • 12 October 2026Lanus 2–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 21 March 2026Velez Sarsfield 0–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 31 August 2025Velez Sarsfield 3–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 22 May 2025Lanus 2–0 Velez SarsfieldCopa Argentina
  • 22 February 2025Lanus 0–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 20 November 2024Velez Sarsfield 0–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield record →

Leading scorers: Lanus and Velez Sarsfield

Lanus

GoalsAssists

  • D. Aquino62

Velez Sarsfield

GoalsAssists

  • R. Martínez101

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.26 goals for Lanus and 0.81 for Velez Sarsfield; the game produced 2 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Sasha Julian Marcich 59' (Lanus), Tomás Marchiori 90' (Lanus).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Lanus the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Lanus against 0.81 for Velez Sarsfield. Lanus's attack/defence rating is 0.84/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.22 for Velez Sarsfield.