Shamrock Rovers
vs
Bohemians
Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Shamrock Rovers 2-1 Bohemians.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Shamrock Rovers, 27% draw, 26% Bohemians — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Shamrock Rovers 1.70, Bohemians 1.14.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Model insights: Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shamrock Rovers at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. McGintyG
- 6D. ClearyD
- 4PicoD
- 5L. GraceD
- 22T. SobowaleM
- 8M. HealyM
- 7D. WattsM
- 24W. FitzgeraldM
- 29J. ByrneM
- 10G. BurkeM
- 88J. McGovernF
- 25L. SteacyG
- 27C. O'SullivanD
- 11J. MulraneyM
- 26John O'SullivanM
- 28N. RaziF
- 19A. BrennanM
- 18J. AfolabiF
- 9A. GreeneF
- 31M. NoonanF
- 25P. WaltersG
- 16D. PowerD
- 12P. HickeyD
- 22S. ToddD
- 6J. FloresD
- 10D. DevoyM
- 17A. McDonnellM
- 11D. RooneyM
- 26R. TierneyM
- 7C. ParsonsM
- 9C. WhelanF
- 41P. MaddenF
- 18D. James-TaylorF
- 5S. DialloM
- 8H. VaughanM
- 32M. StrodsM
- 3R. BurkeD
- 4N. MorahanM
- 1K. ChorążkaG
- 21Josh AdamM
Form going into Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians
Shamrock Rovers
- W3-1Drogheda United8 October 2026
- W3-2Waterford18 September 2026
- L0-2away to St Patrick's Athletic11 September 2026
- D0-0Shelbourne4 September 2026
Bohemians
- W2-1away to Dundalk2 October 2026
- W2-1Drogheda United18 September 2026
- W3-2away to Galway United11 September 2026
- W3-0Sligo Rovers28 August 2026
What these results say
- Shamrock Rovers conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bohemians won every one of these 4 matches.
- Bohemians scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Bohemians had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 33 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 54 | 33 | +21 | 65 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 58 | 40 | +18 | 59 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians
- 12 October 2026Shamrock Rovers 2–1 BohemiansPremier Division
- 25 May 2026Bohemians 1–2 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 17 April 2026Shamrock Rovers 2–1 BohemiansPremier Division
- 27 February 2026Bohemians 3–2 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 26 September 2025Shamrock Rovers 2–1 BohemiansPremier Division
- 23 June 2025Bohemians 2–0 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
Leading scorers: Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians
Shamrock Rovers
GoalsAssists
- J. McGovern106
- G. Burke83
- M. Noonan60
Bohemians
GoalsAssists
- C. Whelan136
- R. Tierney113
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.70 goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.14 for Bohemians; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: John McGovern 34' (Shamrock Rovers), Ross Tierney 71' (Bohemians), Dylan Watts 76' (Shamrock Rovers).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shamrock Rovers the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers against 1.14 for Bohemians. Shamrock Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.82 for Bohemians.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.