Galway United
vs
Shamrock Rovers
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Galway United 0–1 Shamrock Rovers
The model makes it 28% Galway United, 29% draw, 43% Shamrock Rovers — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Galway United 1.04, Shamrock Rovers 1.41.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Shamrock Rovers: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Galway United are 7th on 38 points from 32 games; Shamrock Rovers are top on 65 points from 33 games — Premier Division.
- Galway United have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Shelbourne.
- Shamrock Rovers are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Bohemians.
- Last 6 meetings: Shamrock Rovers 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 June 2026, ended Shamrock Rovers 3–1 Galway United.
More League of Ireland Premier Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shamrock Rovers at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers
Galway United
- D1-1Shelbourne25 September 2026
- L0-1away to Derry City18 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sligo Rovers14 September 2026
- L2-3Bohemians11 September 2026
- D1-1Shelbourne28 August 2026
Shamrock Rovers
- W2-1Bohemians12 October 2026
- W3-1Drogheda United8 October 2026
- W3-2Waterford18 September 2026
- L0-2away to St Patrick's Athletic11 September 2026
- D0-0Shelbourne4 September 2026
What these results say
- Galway United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Galway United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Galway United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shamrock Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 38 |
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 33 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 54 | 33 | +21 | 65 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Galway United
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today
Shamrock Rovers
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 89% today
From our Premier Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers
- 26 June 2026Shamrock Rovers 3–1 Galway UnitedPremier Division
- 8 May 2026Galway United 1–3 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 20 March 2026Shamrock Rovers 2–0 Galway UnitedPremier Division
- 29 October 2025Shamrock Rovers 1–0 Galway UnitedPremier Division
- 10 August 2025Galway United 0–0 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 30 May 2025Shamrock Rovers 0–0 Galway UnitedPremier Division
Leading scorers: Galway United and Shamrock Rovers
Galway United
GoalsAssists
- K. Twardek86
Shamrock Rovers
GoalsAssists
- J. McGovern106
- G. Burke83
- M. Noonan60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Galway United carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.43 for Shamrock Rovers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.04 goals for Galway United and 1.41 for Shamrock Rovers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Galway United rate 0.48 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shamrock Rovers rate 0.64 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Galway United a 0% chance of the title and Shamrock Rovers 88.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shamrock Rovers the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Galway United against 1.41 for Shamrock Rovers. Galway United's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.48 for Shamrock Rovers.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Galway United at home · Shamrock Rovers away
League matches only, Premier Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Division matches this season: Galway United 32, Shamrock Rovers 33.
Galway United score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Shamrock Rovers have let in 4 there.
Shamrock Rovers score most often in the 31–45 minute window (14 goals); Galway United have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Galway United
- at Waterford19 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 28%
- vs St Patrick's Athletic23 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 26%
- at Drogheda United30 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 33%
Shamrock Rovers
- vs Sligo Rovers23 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 67%
- at Dundalk30 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.