St Patrick's Athletic
vs
Shelbourne
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: St Patrick's Athletic 1–0 Shelbourne
The model makes it 51% St Patrick's Athletic, 29% draw, 20% Shelbourne — fair odds of 1.96, 3.45 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: St Patrick's Athletic 1.48, Shelbourne 0.74.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to St Patrick's Athletic: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- St Patrick's Athletic are 2nd on 59 points from 32 games; Shelbourne are 4th on 43 points from 33 games — Premier Division.
- St Patrick's Athletic are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Sligo Rovers.
- Shelbourne are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Sligo Rovers.
- Last 6 meetings: St Patrick's Athletic 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Shelbourne 1–2 St Patrick's Athletic.
More League of Ireland Premier Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: St Patrick's Athletic vs Shelbourne
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St Patrick's Athletic at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into St Patrick's Athletic vs Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athletic
- W1-0away to Sligo Rovers19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Dundalk14 September 2026
- W2-0Shamrock Rovers11 September 2026
- L0-2Waterford28 August 2026
- W2-0away to Drogheda United21 August 2026
Shelbourne
- W5-1Sligo Rovers9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Galway United25 September 2026
- W3-2away to Dundalk18 September 2026
- L1-2Drogheda United14 September 2026
- L0-1Derry City11 September 2026
What these results say
- St Patrick's Athletic won 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Patrick's Athletic scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Patrick's Athletic kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shelbourne conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Shelbourne scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Shelbourne.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
St Patrick's Athletic
Chance to finish top of the regular season
Shelbourne
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
From our Premier Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: St Patrick's Athletic vs Shelbourne
- 9 August 2026Shelbourne 1–2 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 15 May 2026St Patrick's Athletic 0–1 ShelbournePremier Division
- 6 March 2026Shelbourne 2–3 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 1 November 2025Shelbourne 0–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 17 August 2025St Patrick's Athletic 2–0 ShelbourneFAI Cup
- 16 June 2025St Patrick's Athletic 0–1 ShelbournePremier Division
Leading scorers: St Patrick's Athletic and Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athletic
GoalsAssists
- A. Keena104
- R. Edmondson101
- K. Leavy63
Shelbourne
GoalsAssists
- H. Wood85
- J. Martin82
- D. Kelly73
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
St Patrick's Athletic carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.25 for Shelbourne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for St Patrick's Athletic and 0.74 for Shelbourne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St Patrick's Athletic rate 0.56 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shelbourne rate 0.54 and 1.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives St Patrick's Athletic a 10.4% chance of the title and Shelbourne 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St Patrick's Athletic the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for St Patrick's Athletic against 0.74 for Shelbourne. St Patrick's Athletic's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.81 for Shelbourne.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
St Patrick's Athletic at home · Shelbourne away
League matches only, Premier Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Division matches this season: St Patrick's Athletic 32, Shelbourne 33.
St Patrick's Athletic score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Shelbourne have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
St Patrick's Athletic
- at Derry City19 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 37%
- at Galway United23 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 43%
- vs Bohemians30 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 47%
Shelbourne
- at Bohemians23 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 26%
- vs Waterford30 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.