Sarmiento Junin
vs
River Plate
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Sarmiento Junin 1-1 River Plate.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Sarmiento Junin, 28% draw, 35% River Plate — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sarmiento Junin 1.34, River Plate 1.29.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sarmiento Junin at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12T. AyalaG
- 8S. SalleD
- 44R. OrihuelaD
- 2J. InsaurraldeD
- 3L. SuárezD
- 19J. ContreraM
- 5M. GarcíaM
- 15C. ZabalaM
- 10Jhon RenteríaF
- 27J. MarabelF
- 21J. MavillaF
- 33G. DíazM
- 35F. AlaggiaM
- 1I. ArboledaG
- 6G. ArturiaD
- 23E. GiménezM
- 39Joel GodoyD
- 11G. GonzálezF
- 24J. HerreraF
- 7P. MagnínF
- 41S. BeltránG
- 29G. MontielD
- 28L. MartínezD
- 30N. OtamendiD
- 21M. AcuñaD
- 15F. VeraM
- 50T. AndradaM
- 23T. AlmadaM
- 26T. GalvánM
- 10Á. CorreaF
- 9S. DriussiF
- 18L. BeltránM
- 8M. ArambarriM
- 19R. BorréF
- 33E. CenturiónG
- 27Santiago Joaquín EspíndolaM
- 20G. GonzálezD
- 24J. MezaM
- 6A. MorenoM
- 3F. OrtegaD
Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate
Sarmiento Junin
- W3-1away to Aldosivi9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Racing Club19 September 2026
- D1-1Belgrano Cordoba13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto4 September 2026
River Plate
- W1-0Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto11 October 2026
- L1-2Huracan19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman12 September 2026
- W3-1Independiente Rivadavia6 September 2026
What these results say
- Sarmiento Junin scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sarmiento Junin conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Sarmiento Junin.
- River Plate scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- River Plate won 3 of these 4 matches.
- River Plate conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sarmiento Junin | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 20 |
| 9 | River Plate | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate
- 15 March 2026River Plate 2–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 October 2025River Plate 0–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 April 2025Sarmiento Junin 1–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 July 2024River Plate 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 March 2023Sarmiento Junin 0–2 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 31 July 2022River Plate 1–2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and River Plate
Sarmiento Junin
GoalsAssists
- J. Marabel144
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- T. Galván63
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.34 goals for Sarmiento Junin and 1.29 for River Plate; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Julián Contrera 15' (Sarmiento Junin), Gonzalo Montiel 71' (River Plate).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarmiento Junin the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sarmiento Junin against 1.29 for River Plate. Sarmiento Junin's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.17 for River Plate.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.