DC United
vs
New York Red Bulls
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: DC United 2-1 New York Red Bulls.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% DC United, 27% draw, 32% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: DC United 1.52, New York Red Bulls 1.27.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More MLS predictions
Model insights: DC United vs New York Red Bulls
Has the model earned this number?
It puts DC United at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — DC United vs New York Red Bulls
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 5S. HeftiD
- 3L. BartlettD
- 15K. RowlesD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 2K. NonoM
- 21A. DozzellM
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 32O. AvilezF
- 9T. BariboF
- 25J. HopkinsF
- 8J. StroudM
- 4M. PeltolaD
- 22N. OrdazF
- 13S. NealisD
- 26A. BonoG
- 7PeglowF
- 27Nikola MarkovicD
- 48Gavin TurnerM
- 40K. CastilloM
- 34E. HorvathG
- 12D. NealisD
- 2J. CheD
- 14J. BazánD
- 59D. PadelfordD
- 48R. DonkorM
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 37M. SofoM
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 16J. HallF
- 7C. CowellF
- 45C. FaelloD
- 56M. Dos SantosD
- 13E. Choupo-MotingF
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 17C. HarperF
- 60S. KoneM
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 79R. MosqueraF
Form going into DC United vs New York Red Bulls
DC United
- L0-4away to Inter Miami10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps27 September 2026
- L1-2Charlotte19 September 2026
- D0-0Atlanta United FC12 September 2026
New York Red Bulls
- W4-1San Diego10 October 2026
- L0-3St. Louis City30 September 2026
- W1-0away to New York City FC18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Columbus Crew12 September 2026
What these results say
- DC United did not win any of these 4 matches.
- DC United conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for DC United had three goals or more.
- New York Red Bulls won 3 of these 4 matches.
- New York Red Bulls scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | DC United | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 33 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 39 | 54 | -15 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: DC United vs New York Red Bulls
- 22 April 2026New York Red Bulls 4–4 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 24 May 2025DC United 0–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 19 April 2025New York Red Bulls 1–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 25 January 2025New York Red Bulls 1–1 DC UnitedFriendlies Clubs
- 29 June 2024New York Red Bulls 2–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 15 May 2024DC United 1–4 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: DC United and New York Red Bulls
DC United
GoalsAssists
- T. Baribo140
New York Red Bulls
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.52 goals for DC United and 1.27 for New York Red Bulls; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Tai Baribo 5' (DC United), Silvan Hefti 45' (DC United), Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting 71' (New York Red Bulls).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives DC United the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for DC United against 1.27 for New York Red Bulls. DC United's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.43 for New York Red Bulls.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.