Regular Season - 29 · 14 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution Major League Soccer prediction & result

TQL Stadium, Cincinnati
Referee: Rubiel Vazquez
Full time2 – 3

Final score: FC Cincinnati 2-3 New England Revolution.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% FC Cincinnati, 23% draw, 36% New England Revolution — fair odds of 2.44, 4.35 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).

Expected goals: FC Cincinnati 2.11, New England Revolution 1.94.

Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution

76%
Both teams to score
77%
Over 2.5 goals
23%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 8%1-1 7%2-2 7%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Cincinnati at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Cincinnati0%Draw6%New England Revolution94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Ilay Feingold
⚽Tom Barlowassist: Tyrell Malacia
13'
21'
⚽Dor Turgemanassist: Peyton Miller
Tyrell Malacia
31'
43'
⚽Joshua Wynderassist: Carles Gil
Tom Barlow
44'
🔁Obinna Nwobodoout: Pavel Bucha
45'
🔁Tom Barlowout: Kenji Mboma Dem
45'
🔁Julian Malatiniout: Samuel Mawuena Gidi
45'
51'
⚽Dor Turgemanassist: Peyton Miller
51'
•Dor Turgeman
⚽Kevin Denkeyassist: Tyrell Malacia
67'
🔁Tyrell Malaciaout: Evander
68'
69'
🔁Dániel Gazdagout: Luca Daniel·Langoni
74'
🔁Ilay Feingoldout: Jackson Yueill
🔁Kyle Smithout: Ayoub Jabbari
81'
83'
M. Mitrovic
Evander
84'
89'
🔁Peyton Millerout: Tanner·Beason
89'
🔁Dor Turgemanout: Cody Baker

Match stats — FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution

58%Possession42%
21Shots10
9On target5
12Corners5
1.96xG1.69

Goals against chances

FC Cincinnati2 from 1.96 xGabout what the chances were worth
New England Revolution3 from 1.69 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Cincinnati 3-5-2
  • 13E. LouroG
  • 24K. SmithD
  • 6J. MalatiniD
  • 15T. HadebeD
  • 66E. EcheniqueM
  • 27B. AnungaM
  • 22G. ValenzuelaM
  • 5O. NwobodoM
  • 3T. MalaciaM
  • 16T. BarlowF
  • 9K. DenkeyF
Substitutes
  • 99A. JabbariF
  • 4N. HagglundD
  • 11S. GidiM
  • 10EvanderM
  • 23D. DouděraM
  • 18R. CelentanoG
  • 20P. BuchaM
  • 17K. Mboma DemF
  • 29Bryan Josías Ramírez LeónD
Coach: Pat Noonan
New England Revolution 4-2-3-1
  • 30M. TurnerG
  • 12I. FeingoldD
  • 22E. KohlerD
  • 66J. WynderD
  • 23W. SandsD
  • 8M. PolsterM
  • 21B. RainesM
  • 25P. MillerM
  • 10Carles GilM
  • 16D. GazdagM
  • 99D. TurgemanF
Substitutes
  • 14J. YueillM
  • 15C. BakerD
  • 4T. BeasonD
  • 77D. FagundezM
  • 27W. HarrisF
  • 41L. LangoniF
  • 33D. ParisianG
  • 65J. SiqueiraM
  • 7G. YowF
Coach: M. Mićović

Form going into FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution

FC Cincinnati

  • W3-1away to Atlanta United FC10 October 2026
  • L1-3away to CF Montreal26 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Houston Dynamo20 September 2026
  • D3-3Charlotte12 September 2026

New England Revolution

  • L0-3Seattle Sounders10 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Real Salt Lake27 September 2026
  • W4-2Orlando City SC19 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Chicago Fire13 September 2026

What these results say

  • FC Cincinnati scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Cincinnati conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for FC Cincinnati had three goals or more.
  • New England Revolution conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for New England Revolution had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9FC Cincinnati2899106068-836
3New England Revolution29154104841+749

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution

  • 15 March 2026New England Revolution 6–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 23 January 2026New England Revolution 1–1 FC CincinnatiFriendlies Clubs
  • 14 June 2025New England Revolution 0–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 5 April 2025FC Cincinnati 1–0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 22 June 2024FC Cincinnati 1–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 17 March 2024New England Revolution 1–2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: FC Cincinnati and New England Revolution

FC Cincinnati

GoalsAssists

  • K. Denkey163

New England Revolution

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 48 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.11 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.94 for New England Revolution; the game produced 2 and 3.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Tom Barlow 13' (FC Cincinnati), Dor Turgeman 21' (New England Revolution), Joshua Wynder 43' (New England Revolution), Dor Turgeman 51' (New England Revolution), Kevin Denkey 67' (FC Cincinnati).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Cincinnati the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for FC Cincinnati against 1.94 for New England Revolution. FC Cincinnati's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.35 for New England Revolution.