Columbus Crew
vs
Charlotte
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Columbus Crew 3-1 Charlotte.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Columbus Crew, 26% draw, 34% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Columbus Crew 1.66, Charlotte 1.51.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Columbus Crew at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28P. SchulteG
- 31S. MoreiraD
- 25S. ZawadzkiD
- 18M. AmundsenD
- 23M. FarsiM
- 7D. ChambostM
- 16T. HabrouneM
- 21A. ZarouryM
- 10Brais MéndezF
- 77Josef MartínezF
- 8S. RodríguezF
- 11B. LennonD
- 20André GomesM
- 2M. HerreraD
- 33G. TapiaF
- 1N. HagenG
- 3E. BaillyD
- 17S. BangouraM
- 26L. GiacconeM
- 19J. ThiaréF
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 35Will ClearyD
- 22H. KesslerD
- 3T. ReamD
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 13B. BronicoM
- 11L. AbadaM
- 16Pep BielM
- 10A. Saint-MaximinM
- 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 28D. DianiM
- 21T. MillerG
- 4A. PrivettD
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 23D. SchneggD
- 14N. ByrneD
- 44M. AgyemangD
- 37R. AlokoF
Form going into Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
Columbus Crew
- L2-3away to Orlando City SC10 October 2026
- W2-1Inter Miami27 September 2026
- W2-0away to CF Montreal19 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls12 September 2026
Charlotte
- W3-2FC Dallas10 October 2026
- L0-1Chicago Fire26 September 2026
- W2-1away to DC United19 September 2026
- D3-3away to FC Cincinnati12 September 2026
What these results say
- Columbus Crew scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Columbus Crew conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Charlotte conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Charlotte scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Charlotte had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 32 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
- 15 August 2026Charlotte 3–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 24 May 2025Charlotte 3–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 3 May 2025Columbus Crew 4–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2024Columbus Crew 1–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2024Charlotte 2–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 3 June 2023Columbus Crew 4–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.66 goals for Columbus Crew and 1.51 for Charlotte; the game produced 3 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Idan Toklomati Jorno 17' (Charlotte), Brais Méndez 28' (Columbus Crew), Anass Zaroury 63' (Columbus Crew), Taha Habroune 65' (Columbus Crew).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Columbus Crew the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Columbus Crew against 1.51 for Charlotte. Columbus Crew's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.33 for Charlotte.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.