Platense
vs
Lanus
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Platense 0–1 Lanus
The model makes it 28% Platense, 32% draw, 40% Lanus — fair odds of 3.57, 3.13 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Platense 0.85, Lanus 1.11.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Lanus: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Platense are 13th on 11 points from 12 games; Lanus are 5th on 20 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Platense have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Argentinos Juniors.
- Lanus are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Velez Sarsfield.
- Last 6 meetings: Lanus 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 1 April 2026, ended Lanus 0–0 Platense.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Platense vs Lanus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lanus at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Platense vs Lanus
Platense
- D1-1Argentinos Juniors11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Velez Sarsfield5 October 2026
- L0-1Newell's Old Boys20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Estudiantes La Plata12 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Riestra4 September 2026
Lanus
- W2-0Velez Sarsfield12 October 2026
- D0-0away to Newell's Old Boys3 October 2026
- W2-1Estudiantes La Plata22 September 2026
- W3-0away to Deportivo Riestra14 September 2026
- W1-0Defensa Y Justicia6 September 2026
What these results say
- Platense did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Platense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Platense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lanus went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lanus won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lanus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Platense | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
| 5 | Lanus | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Platense
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 53% today
Lanus
Chance to finish in the top four · 48% today
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Platense vs Lanus
- 1 April 2026Lanus 0–0 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 September 2025Lanus 2–1 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 March 2025Platense 0–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 November 2024Lanus 0–0 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 February 2024Lanus 3–0 PlatenseCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 14 September 2023Platense 2–1 LanusCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Platense and Lanus
Platense
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Lanus
GoalsAssists
- D. Aquino62
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Platense carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.77 for Lanus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.85 goals for Platense and 1.11 for Lanus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Platense rate 0.70 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lanus rate 0.84 and 0.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Platense a 0% chance of the title and Lanus 2.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lanus the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Platense against 1.11 for Lanus. Platense's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/0.99 for Lanus.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Platense at home · Lanus away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Platense 27, Lanus 28.
Platense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Lanus have let in 9 there.
Lanus score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Platense have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Platense
- at Gimnasia Mendoza23 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 23%
- vs Central Cordoba de Santiago2 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 41%
- at San Lorenzo8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 27%
Lanus
- at Banfield24 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 38%
- vs Gimnasia Mendoza1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 48%
- at Central Cordoba de Santiago8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.