AIK Stockholm
vs
IFK Goteborg
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: AIK Stockholm 2–1 IFK Goteborg
The model makes it 44% AIK Stockholm, 24% draw, 32% IFK Goteborg — fair odds of 2.27, 4.17 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: AIK Stockholm 1.93, IFK Goteborg 1.59.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- AIK Stockholm are 9th on 33 points from 23 games; IFK Goteborg are 8th on 35 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- AIK Stockholm have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 5-6 defeat at home to IF Brommapojkarna.
- IFK Goteborg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Vasteras SK FK.
- Last 6 meetings: AIK Stockholm 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 July 2026, ended IFK Goteborg 1–2 AIK Stockholm.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AIK Stockholm at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg
AIK Stockholm
- L5-6IF Brommapojkarna10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Halmstad20 September 2026
- D1-1Mjallby AIF16 September 2026
- L1-4Vasteras SK FK12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Malmo FF7 September 2026
IFK Goteborg
- W1-0Vasteras SK FK9 October 2026
- W1-0away to IF Brommapojkarna19 September 2026
- W2-1Halmstad12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Mjallby AIF7 September 2026
- W1-0Orgryte IS30 August 2026
What these results say
- AIK Stockholm did not win any of these 5 matches.
- AIK Stockholm scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AIK Stockholm conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- IFK Goteborg won every one of these 5 matches.
- IFK Goteborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg
AIK Stockholm
- A. Helmknee injury
- A. Redkinknee injury
- C. Paveygroin injury
- D. Besirovicthigh injury
- F. Nisseninjury
- I. Cisseankle injury
- K. Fillingknee injury
- M. Ellingsenleg injury
- S. Papagiannopoulosknee injury
IFK Goteborg
- A. Erlingmarkinactive
- A. Jallowmuscle injury
- A. Mucolliknee injury
- K. Thordarsonsuspended (yellow cards)
- R. Lundqvistinactive
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | AIK Stockholm | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 |
| 8 | IFK Goteborg | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg
- 5 July 2026IFK Goteborg 1–2 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 17 August 2025IFK Goteborg 2–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 29 June 2025AIK Stockholm 3–0 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 21 October 2024IFK Goteborg 1–2 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 27 May 2024AIK Stockholm 5–2 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 6 November 2023IFK Goteborg 1–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg
AIK Stockholm
GoalsAssists
- J. Hove82
IFK Goteborg
GoalsAssists
- S. Larsson72
- T. Heintz65
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AIK Stockholm carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.35 for IFK Goteborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.59 for IFK Goteborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AIK Stockholm rate 0.71 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; IFK Goteborg rate 0.62 and 1.67.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour IFK Goteborg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AIK Stockholm the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for AIK Stockholm against 1.59 for IFK Goteborg. AIK Stockholm's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.67 for IFK Goteborg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AIK Stockholm at home · IFK Goteborg away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: AIK Stockholm 23, IFK Goteborg 23.
AIK Stockholm score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); IFK Goteborg have let in 10 there.
IFK Goteborg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); AIK Stockholm have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
AIK Stockholm
- at Sirius24 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 21%
- vs IF Elfsborg27 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 32%
- at Gais2 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 24%
- vs BK Hacken8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 34%
- vs Degerfors IF21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 49%
IFK Goteborg
- at Gais25 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 23%
- vs Djurgardens IF28 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 21%
- at BK Hacken1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 25%
- vs Malmo FF8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 35%
- at Hammarby FF23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.