Regular Season - 24 · 18 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Sirius vs IF Elfsborg Allsvenskan prediction

Studenternas IP, Uppsala

Our model says: Sirius 2–1 IF Elfsborg

The model makes it 45% Sirius, 25% draw, 30% IF Elfsborg — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Sirius 1.79, IF Elfsborg 1.36.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Sirius are top on 54 points from 23 games; IF Elfsborg are 4th on 40 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
  • Sirius are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Gais.
  • IF Elfsborg are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Halmstad.
  • Last 6 meetings: Sirius 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 July 2026, ended IF Elfsborg 1–3 Sirius.

More Allsvenskan predictions

All Allsvenskan predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Sirius vs IF Elfsborg

62%
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Sirius win Draw IF Elfsborg win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–07%
  4. 1–27%
  5. 2–07%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Sirius first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 47%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sirius at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Sirius vs IF Elfsborg

Sirius

  • W1-0away to Gais10 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Orgryte IS19 September 2026
  • W2-0Degerfors IF14 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Vasteras SK FK5 September 2026
  • L0-1Malmo FF31 August 2026

IF Elfsborg

  • W4-0Halmstad12 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Djurgardens IF20 September 2026
  • W1-0Kalmar FF13 September 2026
  • L1-2away to IF Brommapojkarna6 September 2026
  • W2-0Degerfors IF29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Sirius won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sirius scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sirius had two goals or fewer.
  • IF Elfsborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • IF Elfsborg won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Who is missing for Sirius vs IF Elfsborg

Sirius

  • O. Liimattathigh injuryDoubtful

IF Elfsborg

  • L. Hagginactive
  • M. Rohdenmuscle injury
  • P. Frickinactive

From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Sirius2317335328+2554
4IF Elfsborg2311753522+1340

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Sirius

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 87% today

Win 94%
Draw 85%
Defeat 80%

IF Elfsborg

Chance to finish in the top four · 46% today

Win 61%
Draw 45%
Defeat 36%

From our Allsvenskan season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: Sirius vs IF Elfsborg

  • 19 July 2026IF Elfsborg 1–3 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 8 March 2026IF Elfsborg 1–2 SiriusSvenska Cupen
  • 26 October 2025Sirius 4–0 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 23 April 2025IF Elfsborg 4–3 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 6 October 2024Sirius 4–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 29 April 2024IF Elfsborg 2–0 SiriusAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Sirius and IF Elfsborg

Sirius

GoalsAssists

  • R. Ure152
  • I. Bjerkebo146

IF Elfsborg

GoalsAssists

  • L. Östman82

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Sirius carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.54 for IF Elfsborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Sirius and 1.36 for IF Elfsborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Sirius rate 0.87 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; IF Elfsborg rate 0.68 and 1.26.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sirius a 87.1% chance of the title and IF Elfsborg 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sirius the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Sirius against 1.36 for IF Elfsborg. Sirius's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.26 for IF Elfsborg.

Season stats

SiriusIF Elfsborg
23Matches23
17W 3D 3LRecord11W 7D 5L
53 2.3 per gameGoals scored35 1.5 per game
28 1.2 per gameGoals conceded22 1.0 per game
8 of 23Clean sheets8 of 23
2 of 23Failed to score1 of 23
5 of 6Penalties scored2 of 2
29 1.3 per gameYellow cards30 1.3 per game
1Red cards0
4-2-3-1 15×Usual shape4-2-3-1 13×

Sirius at home · IF Elfsborg away

11Played11
7W 2D 2LRecord4W 4D 3L
25–15Goals for – against14–13
3 of 11Clean sheets2 of 11

League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Allsvenskan matches this season: Sirius 23, IF Elfsborg 23.

Sirius scored 97117911
IF Elfsborg conceded 332457
IF Elfsborg scored 6334710
Sirius conceded 255627

IF Elfsborg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Sirius have let in 7 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Sirius

IF Elfsborg

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.