Halmstad
vs
Hammarby FF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Halmstad 0–2 Hammarby FF
The model makes it 13% Halmstad, 21% draw, 66% Hammarby FF — fair odds of 7.69, 4.76 and 1.52. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (13%).
Expected goals: Halmstad 0.69, Hammarby FF 2.22.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Hammarby FF are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Halmstad are bottom on 14 points from 23 games; Hammarby FF are 3rd on 43 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- Halmstad have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to IF Elfsborg.
- Hammarby FF have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Djurgardens IF.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 April 2026, ended Hammarby FF 1–1 Halmstad.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Halmstad vs Hammarby FF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hammarby FF at 66% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Halmstad vs Hammarby FF
Halmstad
- L0-4away to IF Elfsborg12 October 2026
- W2-1AIK Stockholm20 September 2026
- L1-2away to IFK Goteborg12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Degerfors IF5 September 2026
- W1-0Kalmar FF29 August 2026
Hammarby FF
- L0-1Djurgardens IF11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Degerfors IF20 September 2026
- W3-1IF Brommapojkarna13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Orgryte IS6 September 2026
- L2-3away to AIK Stockholm30 August 2026
What these results say
- Halmstad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hammarby FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hammarby FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Halmstad vs Hammarby FF
Halmstad
No absences reported.
Hammarby FF
- B. Hedlofhip injury
- V. Erikssonsuspended (yellow cards)
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Halmstad | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 44 | -28 | 14 |
| 3 | Hammarby FF | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 21 | +28 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hammarby FF
Chance to finish in the top four · 95% today
From our Allsvenskan season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Halmstad vs Hammarby FF
- 22 April 2026Hammarby FF 1–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan
- 28 September 2025Halmstad 1–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 28 June 2025Hammarby FF 2–0 HalmstadAllsvenskan
- 5 October 2024Hammarby FF 1–0 HalmstadAllsvenskan
- 25 April 2024Halmstad 2–1 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 12 November 2023Hammarby FF 2–2 HalmstadAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Halmstad and Hammarby FF
Halmstad
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Hammarby FF
GoalsAssists
- P. Abraham143
- V. Lind911
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Halmstad carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.72 for Hammarby FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.69 goals for Halmstad and 2.22 for Hammarby FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Halmstad rate 0.38 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hammarby FF rate 0.85 and 1.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Halmstad a 0% chance of the title and Hammarby FF 3.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hammarby FF the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Halmstad against 2.22 for Hammarby FF. Halmstad's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.11 for Hammarby FF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Halmstad at home · Hammarby FF away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Halmstad 23, Hammarby FF 23.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Halmstad
- at Vasteras SK FK23 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 16%
- vs Malmo FF28 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 21%
- at Sirius3 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 10%
- vs Djurgardens IF8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 11%
- at IF Brommapojkarna22 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 18%
Hammarby FF
- at Mjallby AIF25 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 54%
- vs Sirius29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 50%
- at Malmo FF1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 46%
- vs IF Elfsborg6 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 50%
- vs IFK Goteborg23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.