Vasteras SK FK
vs
Mjallby AIF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Vasteras SK FK 2–1 Mjallby AIF
The model makes it 48% Vasteras SK FK, 26% draw, 26% Mjallby AIF — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Vasteras SK FK 1.79, Mjallby AIF 1.20.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Vasteras SK FK are 7th on 35 points from 23 games; Mjallby AIF are 12th on 23 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- Vasteras SK FK have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to IFK Goteborg.
- Mjallby AIF have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Degerfors IF.
- Last 6 meetings: Mjallby AIF 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 July 2026, ended Mjallby AIF 0–0 Vasteras SK FK.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasteras SK FK at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF
Vasteras SK FK
- L0-1away to IFK Goteborg9 October 2026
- W2-0Malmo FF19 September 2026
- W4-1away to AIK Stockholm12 September 2026
- L0-1Sirius5 September 2026
- W3-1away to BK Hacken29 August 2026
Mjallby AIF
- D1-1Degerfors IF10 October 2026
- L0-3Gais20 September 2026
- D1-1away to AIK Stockholm16 September 2026
- D1-1away to BK Hacken11 September 2026
- L1-4IFK Goteborg7 September 2026
What these results say
- Vasteras SK FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF
Vasteras SK FK
- E. Jagersuspended (red card)
- M. Diallohealth problems
- I. LushakuinactiveDoubtful
Mjallby AIF
- M. Isakssoninactive
- T. Stavitskiback injury
- V. Dalsgaardinjury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Vasteras SK FK | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 35 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Vasteras SK FK
Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today
Mjallby AIF
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our Allsvenskan season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF
- 17 July 2026Mjallby AIF 0–0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
- 5 October 2024Mjallby AIF 2–1 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
- 25 April 2024Vasteras SK FK 2–1 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 25 February 2024Mjallby AIF 2–0 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen
- 19 October 2019Vasteras SK FK 2–2 Mjallby AIFSuperettan
- 13 April 2019Mjallby AIF 2–1 Vasteras SK FKSuperettan
Leading scorers: Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF
Vasteras SK FK
GoalsAssists
- M. Ladefoged92
- A. Taonsa80
Mjallby AIF
GoalsAssists
- J. Bergström90
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vasteras SK FK carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.32 for Mjallby AIF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.20 for Mjallby AIF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vasteras SK FK rate 0.65 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mjallby AIF rate 0.59 and 1.69.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasteras SK FK the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK against 1.20 for Mjallby AIF. Vasteras SK FK's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.69 for Mjallby AIF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vasteras SK FK at home · Mjallby AIF away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Vasteras SK FK 23, Mjallby AIF 23.
Vasteras SK FK score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Mjallby AIF have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Vasteras SK FK
- vs Halmstad23 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 60%
- at Degerfors IF28 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 42%
- vs IF Brommapojkarna1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 47%
- at Orgryte IS7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 48%
- at Gais21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 26%
Mjallby AIF
- at FC Iberia 199922 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 28%
- vs Hammarby FF25 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 22%
- at Orgryte IS29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 41%
- vs Kalmar FF2 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 47%
- vs Borac Banja Luka5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.