Orgryte IS
vs
Gais
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Orgryte IS 0–1 Gais
The model makes it 22% Orgryte IS, 27% draw, 51% Gais — fair odds of 4.55, 3.70 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: Orgryte IS 0.89, Gais 1.63.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Gais are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Orgryte IS are 15th on 15 points from 23 games; Gais are 10th on 30 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- Orgryte IS have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to BK Hacken.
- Gais have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sirius.
- Last 6 meetings: Gais 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Gais 4–0 Orgryte IS.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Orgryte IS vs Gais
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gais at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Orgryte IS vs Gais
Orgryte IS
- L0-3away to BK Hacken11 October 2026
- L1-2Sirius19 September 2026
- L1-4away to Malmo FF13 September 2026
- D1-1Hammarby FF6 September 2026
- L0-1away to IFK Goteborg30 August 2026
Gais
- L0-1Sirius10 October 2026
- W3-0away to Mjallby AIF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Djurgardens IF14 September 2026
- D0-0BK Hacken5 September 2026
- W4-0IF Brommapojkarna31 August 2026
What these results say
- Orgryte IS did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Orgryte IS vs Gais
Orgryte IS
- A. Abukarknee injury
- J. Tibblingmuscle injury
- R. Alminjury
- V. Ekblomthigh injury
- W. Svenssonfoot injury
Gais
- B. Asumangillness
- D. Collanderinactive
- G. Lundgrenachilles tendon injury
- K. Holmenknee injury
- R. Thorkelssonknee injury
- W. Milovanovicillness
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 23 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 52 | -27 | 15 |
| 10 | Gais | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Orgryte IS
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 94% today
From our Allsvenskan season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Orgryte IS vs Gais
- 3 May 2026Gais 4–0 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
- 3 March 2024Gais 3–0 Orgryte ISSvenska Cupen
- 28 September 2023Orgryte IS 1–4 GaisSuperettan
- 1 June 2023Gais 0–1 Orgryte ISSuperettan
- 29 September 2021Gais 2–1 Orgryte ISSuperettan
- 3 August 2021Orgryte IS 1–0 GaisSuperettan
Leading scorers: Orgryte IS and Gais
Orgryte IS
GoalsAssists
- N. Christoffersson81
Gais
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Orgryte IS carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.58 for Gais. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.89 goals for Orgryte IS and 1.63 for Gais. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orgryte IS rate 0.52 in attack and 2.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gais rate 0.57 and 1.05.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gais the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Orgryte IS against 1.63 for Gais. Orgryte IS's attack/defence rating is 0.52/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.05 for Gais.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Orgryte IS at home · Gais away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Orgryte IS 23, Gais 23.
Orgryte IS score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Gais have let in 5 there.
Gais score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Orgryte IS have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Orgryte IS
- at Djurgardens IF24 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 9%
- vs Mjallby AIF29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 33%
- at IF Elfsborg1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 16%
- vs Vasteras SK FK7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 27%
- vs Kalmar FF23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 39%
Gais
- vs IFK Goteborg25 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 49%
- at Kalmar FF29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 46%
- vs AIK Stockholm2 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 50%
- at Degerfors IF7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 44%
- vs Vasteras SK FK21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.