Regular Season - 23 · 12 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad Allsvenskan prediction & result

Borås Arena, Boras
Referee: Fredrik Klitte
Full time4 – 0

Final score: IF Elfsborg 4-0 Halmstad.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% IF Elfsborg, 22% draw, 13% Halmstad — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).

Expected goals: IF Elfsborg 2.10, Halmstad 0.66.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Model insights: IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad

43%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-0 14%1-0 13%3-0 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts IF Elfsborg at 65% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Momoh Ibrahim Kamaraassist: Leo Hakan Ostman
3'
⚽Pascal Gregor (OG)
41'
45'
🔁Omar Farajout: Marvin Illary
45'
🔁Ludvig Arvidssonout: Ajdin Zeljkovic
56'
Gabriel Wallentin
⚽Leo Hakan Ostmanassist: Niklas Hult
61'
🔁Ari Sigurpalssonout: Ossian nordvall
69'
🔁Arbër Zeneliout: Simon Hedlund
69'
🔁Rasmus Wikströmout: Sebastian Holmen
69'
77'
🔁Rami Kaibout: Oliver Kapsimalis
🔁Julius Beckout: Simon Olsson
77'
⚽Leo Hakan Ostmanassist: Alexander Jensen
78'
82'
🔁Rocco Asconeout: Malte Persson
82'
🔁Tom Trybullout: Niilo Mäenpää
🔁Niklas Hultout: Jonathan Esenga
87'

Match stats — IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad

56%Possession44%
18Shots9
7On target2
8Corners4
3.33xG0.35

Goals against chances

IF Elfsborg4 from 3.33 xGmore than the chances were worth
Halmstad0 from 0.35 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

IF Elfsborg 4-2-3-1
  • 31I. PetterssonG
  • 16A. JensenD
  • 6R. WikströmD
  • 4T. IsherwoodD
  • 23N. HultD
  • 18J. MagnússonM
  • 19J. BeckM
  • 25A. SigurpálssonM
  • 29M. KamaraM
  • 9A. ZeneliM
  • 21L. ÖstmanF
Substitutes
  • 2Viggo ElfstromD
  • 3J. EsengaD
  • 15S. HedlundM
  • 8S. HolménD
  • 22D. KrasniqiF
  • 5O. NordvallM
  • 10S. OlssonM
  • 12T. SanderG
  • 11T. SilverholtF
Coach: Björn Hamberg
Halmstad 4-4-2
  • 1T. RönningG
  • 17A. BomanD
  • 5P. GregorD
  • 3G. WallentinD
  • 24R. KaibD
  • 11L. ArvidssonM
  • 6J. AllanssonM
  • 28T. TrybullM
  • 14H. CarneilM
  • 27R. AsconeF
  • 9O. FarajF
Substitutes
  • 22Oliver KapsimalisF
  • 8N. MäenpääM
  • 18Malte PerssonF
  • 19M. IllaryM
  • 16E. TõugjasD
  • 23A. ZeljkovicF
  • 25A. Damnjanovic NilssonM
  • 35A. WihedG
  • 4F. SchybergD
Coach: S. Baxter

Form going into IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad

IF Elfsborg

  • W2-1away to Djurgardens IF20 September 2026
  • W1-0Kalmar FF13 September 2026
  • L1-2away to IF Brommapojkarna6 September 2026
  • W2-0Degerfors IF29 August 2026

Halmstad

  • W2-1AIK Stockholm20 September 2026
  • L1-2away to IFK Goteborg12 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Degerfors IF5 September 2026
  • W1-0Kalmar FF29 August 2026

What these results say

  • IF Elfsborg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • IF Elfsborg won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Halmstad scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Halmstad conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4IF Elfsborg2311753522+1340
16Halmstad2335151644-2814

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad

  • 12 October 2026IF Elfsborg 4–0 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 16 May 2026Halmstad 1–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 24 August 2025IF Elfsborg 1–2 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 25 May 2025Halmstad 1–4 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 15 September 2024Halmstad 0–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 24 May 2024IF Elfsborg 2–0 HalmstadAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: IF Elfsborg and Halmstad

IF Elfsborg

GoalsAssists

  • L. Östman82

Halmstad

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.10 goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.66 for Halmstad; the game produced 4 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Momoh Ibrahim Kamara 3' (IF Elfsborg), Pascal Gregor 41' (IF Elfsborg), Leo Hakan Ostman 61' (IF Elfsborg), Leo Hakan Ostman 78' (IF Elfsborg).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives IF Elfsborg the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.10 expected goals for IF Elfsborg against 0.66 for Halmstad. IF Elfsborg's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/1.89 for Halmstad.