KFUM Oslo
vs
Valerenga
Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: KFUM Oslo 2-1 Valerenga.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% KFUM Oslo, 25% draw, 31% Valerenga — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: KFUM Oslo 1.83, Valerenga 1.44.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga
Has the model earned this number?
It puts KFUM Oslo at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. ØdegaardG
- 24H. RøstenD
- 5F. BerglieD
- 2D. SchneiderD
- 14H. HosethM
- 19E. SaunesM
- 9M. VinjorM
- 16J. HjorthM
- 11O. VistedF
- 22B. KristensenF
- 10B. NjieF
- 23M. EikremM
- 28M. GrødemF
- 42D. HicksonF
- 25H. JensenG
- 33A. NouriD
- 7R. RaschM
- 13B. SkaretD
- 8B. TobiassenM
- 18R. VingeF
- 1O. HedvallG
- 3H. SjåtilD
- 4A. Kiil OlsenD
- 55S. JarlD
- 26D. GjengaarD
- 24P. StrandM
- 11G. ZahidM
- 10C. LangeM
- 77L. HarenM
- 90O. SaeterF
- 28M. WestergaardF
- 7H. NielsenF
- 9G. RajkovicF
- 19E. RashaniF
- 37I. NäsbergD
- 13S. LønningG
- 15O. HolmM
- 17M. GrundetjernM
- 2K. FinnssonD
- 29F. AmbinaM
Form going into KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
- W3-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF18 September 2026
- W2-1Aalesund13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Molde6 September 2026
- L1-4away to Start30 August 2026
Valerenga
- D1-1Fredrikstad20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Lillestrom12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF6 September 2026
- L3-4Molde30 August 2026
What these results say
- KFUM Oslo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- KFUM Oslo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for KFUM Oslo had three goals or more.
- Valerenga did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Valerenga conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Valerenga scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 28 |
| 13 | Valerenga | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga
- 12 October 2026KFUM Oslo 2–1 ValerengaEliteserien
- 3 May 2026Valerenga 2–2 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 21 February 2026Valerenga 1–0 KFUM OsloFriendlies Clubs
- 20 September 2025Valerenga 1–1 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 26 May 2025KFUM Oslo 0–1 ValerengaEliteserien
Leading scorers: KFUM Oslo and Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.
Valerenga
GoalsAssists
- L. Haren82
- C. Lange61
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.83 goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.44 for Valerenga; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Aaron Kiil Olsen 26' (Valerenga), Bilal Njie 31' (KFUM Oslo), Bjorn Martin Kristensen 55' (KFUM Oslo).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KFUM Oslo the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for KFUM Oslo against 1.44 for Valerenga. KFUM Oslo's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.65 for Valerenga.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.