11 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Start vs Ham-Kam Eliteserien prediction & result

Kristiansand
Referee: Mohammad Usman Aslam
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Start 2-4 Ham-Kam.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Start, 26% draw, 33% Ham-Kam — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Start at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Start0%Draw1%Ham-Kam99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
•Fredrik Sjolstad
36'
⚽Luc Mares (pen)
⚽John Olav Norheimassist: Sander Aske Granheim
43'
53'
⚽Loris Mettlerassist: Patrick Metcalfe
🔁Hakon Lorentzenout: Nikolaos Koutsakos
61'
🔁Mikael Uglandout: Eirik Schulze
62'
69'
🔁Danilo Al-Saedout: David Benjamin
69'
🔁Fredrik Sjolstadout: Aksel Baran Potur
73'
🔁Duarte Moreiraout: Mohamed Ofkir
74'
⚽Mohamed Ofkirassist: Aksel Baran Potur
🔁Erlend Dahl Reitanout: nikola jojic
75'
🔁Altin Ujkaniout: Fredrik Palerud
75'
82'
🔁João Paulo Rodrigues Barrosout: Ethan Amundsen-Day
🔁Steve Mvoueout: Marius Nordal
84'
90+2'
⚽Mohamed Ofkirassist: Aksel Baran Potur
⚽Erlend Segberg
90+5'

Match stats — Start vs Ham-Kam

57%Possession43%
23Shots17
5On target7
5Corners4
2.08xG2.94

Goals against chances

Start2 from 2.08 xGabout what the chances were worth
Ham-Kam4 from 2.94 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Start 5-3-2
  • 26M. SjøengG
  • 29E. ReitanD
  • 5S. GranheimD
  • 6J. NorheimD
  • 3A. UjkaniD
  • 12D. DashaevD
  • 10S. MvouéM
  • 23E. SegbergM
  • 18M. UglandM
  • 17J. CorneliusF
  • 20H. LorentzenF
Substitutes
  • 8N. JojićF
  • 9N. KoutsakosF
  • 4J. MeyerD
  • 15M. NordalF
  • 2F. PålerudD
  • 11E. SchulzeM
  • 24S. Strand-KolbjørnsenG
  • 37Filip Strømland LienM
  • 35S. SamuyiwaM
Coach: A. Karadas
Ham-Kam 5-3-2
  • 12M. SandbergG
  • 22S. NilsenD
  • 2M. GjoneD
  • 23F. SjølstadD
  • 27João BarrosD
  • 5A. AndresenD
  • 10L. MettlerM
  • 14L. MaresM
  • 26P. MetcalfeM
  • 18Duarte MoreiraF
  • 24D. Al-SaedF
Substitutes
  • 11M. OfkirM
  • 4H. OpsahlD
  • 6W. Osnes-RingenM
  • 13S. ØstraatG
  • 17A. PoturM
  • 19H. UdahlF
  • 7V. JónssonM
  • 28David BenjaminF
  • 3E. Amundsen-DayD
Coach: T. Myhre

Form going into Start vs Ham-Kam

Start

  • L0-3away to Sandefjord20 September 2026
  • W2-0Brann13 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Aalesund4 September 2026
  • W4-1KFUM Oslo30 August 2026

Ham-Kam

  • L2-3away to Tromso20 September 2026
  • L1-5Molde13 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Rosenborg5 September 2026
  • D2-2Kristiansund BK30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Start conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Ham-Kam did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Ham-Kam conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Ham-Kam had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Start2244142448-2416
11Ham-Kam2275103346-1326

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Start vs Ham-Kam

  • 11 October 2026Start 2–4 Ham-KamEliteserien
  • 26 April 2026Ham-Kam 2–1 StartEliteserien
  • 20 February 2023Start 2–1 Ham-KamFriendlies Clubs
  • 20 February 2023Ham-Kam 1–2 StartFriendlies Clubs
  • 29 August 2021Ham-Kam 3–2 Start1. Division
  • 5 July 2021Start 1–4 Ham-Kam1. Division

Leading scorers: Start and Ham-Kam

Start

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.

Ham-Kam

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ofkir62

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.