Lillestrom vs Molde Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Lillestrom 2-2 Molde.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Lillestrom, 26% draw, 37% Molde — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lillestrom at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lillestrom vs Molde
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12P. DahlbergG
- 2L. RangerD
- 5S. FossD
- 28R. GabrielsenD
- 11F. ElkærD
- 21F. OttossonM
- 22D. BassiM
- 14G. NyheimM
- 17E. KitolanoM
- 20VáM
- 10T. Lehne OlsenF
- 8F. GulbrandsenF
- 1S. HagerupG
- 29Y. IbrahimajF
- 47S. KristiansenD
- 18K. KrygårdM
- 16H. MellandM
- 15G. NordhF
- 3S. OttesenD
- 26Y. PaintsilM
- 22A. PosiadałaG
- 25M. LinnesD
- 19E. HauganD
- 27F. DahlD
- 8M. LøvikD
- 11C. Zady SeryM
- 30D. DagaM
- 23S. GranaasM
- 16S. KilenM
- 20K. LonebuF
- 10E. BreivikF
- 28V. BenderM
- 17M. Møller DæhliM
- 26S. KabiniD
- 24Trent Toure Kone DohertyF
- 12P. LervikG
- 6N. ØdegårdM
- 33B. RisaD
- 21O. Spiten-NysæterF
- 43Jonathan FugelsnesF
Form going into Lillestrom vs Molde
Lillestrom
- L0-3away to Viking20 September 2026
- W2-0Valerenga12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Brann5 September 2026
- L1-4Fredrikstad30 August 2026
Molde
- L1-2Aalesund19 September 2026
- W5-1away to Ham-Kam13 September 2026
- W2-0KFUM Oslo6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Valerenga30 August 2026
What these results say
- Lillestrom scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lillestrom conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Lillestrom had three goals or more.
- Molde scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Molde won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Molde conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lillestrom | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 |
| 4 | Molde | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 46 | 34 | +12 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lillestrom vs Molde
- 11 October 2026Lillestrom 2–2 MoldeEliteserien
- 6 April 2026Molde 0–1 LillestromEliteserien
- 6 October 2024Lillestrom 1–2 MoldeNM Cupen
- 11 August 2024Lillestrom 1–2 MoldeEliteserien
- 7 July 2024Molde 3–0 LillestromEliteserien
- 12 November 2023Molde 4–0 LillestromEliteserien
Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Molde
Lillestrom
GoalsAssists
- Vá65
Molde
GoalsAssists
- E. Breivik88
- E. Hestad82
- K. Lonebu72
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.