Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Aalesund 2-4 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Aalesund, 26% draw, 32% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aalesund at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Luca PodlechG
- 7K. NessøD
- 22E. EngqvistD
- 28D. MbackeD
- 3Ó. GuðmundssonD
- 14U. CharlesD
- 21M. ChristensenM
- 18E. HagenM
- 15E. OsenbrochM
- 8I. SkotheimF
- 27H. M. ReedF
- 45P. AuklandD
- 19S. KartumM
- 10M. KristensenM
- 26T. LarsenG
- 17E. MyrlidF
- 9P. NgongoF
- 16J. ØrsahlD
- 25U. SyversenD
- 38T. LeikangerM
- 87L. ØyG
- 32E. WichneD
- 4B. UtvikD
- 24S. RostedD
- 20P. ReinhardsenD
- 10S. SørliM
- 8S. ChristiansenM
- 77O. SkarsemM
- 17N. WilliamsM
- 33A. NibeF
- 11D. KarlsbakkF
- 6A. SherM
- 12C. NiyukuriD
- 2M. LodeD
- 1J. PrytsG
- 5L. HøylandD
- 21A. HiimD
- 22V. HalvorsenM
- 18Bop GueyeM
- 7Camil Mmaee NwamebenM
Form going into Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Aalesund
- W2-1away to Molde19 September 2026
- L1-2away to KFUM Oslo13 September 2026
- W2-0Start4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Viking30 August 2026
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- L1-3KFUM Oslo18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fredrikstad13 September 2026
- D2-2Valerenga6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tromso30 August 2026
What these results say
- Aalesund scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Aalesund conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Aalesund had three goals or more.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Aalesund | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 21 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 11 October 2026Aalesund 2–4 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 22 October 2023Aalesund 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 29 May 2023Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 11 September 2022Aalesund 1–3 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 22 May 2022Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–2 AalesundEliteserien
- 13 September 2020Aalesund 0–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
Leading scorers: Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF
Aalesund
GoalsAssists
- M. Christensen82
Sarpsborg 08 FF
GoalsAssists
- D. Karlsbakk70
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.