Fredrikstad vs Tromso Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Fredrikstad 1-1 Tromso.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Fredrikstad, 28% draw, 36% Tromso — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fredrikstad at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fredrikstad vs Tromso
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77M. BørsheimG
- 12U. FredriksenD
- 4F. HolméD
- 28S. OwusuD
- 16D. EidM
- 6S. Leach HolmM
- 14M. NilssonM
- 13S. SørløkkM
- 11L. WestF
- 23H. SkogvoldF
- 18B. FiabemaF
- 7B. ThoresenF
- 21J. JezierskiM
- 9S. LaghzaouiM
- 24L. OwusuM
- 5S. RafnD
- 30J. TorkildsenG
- 10J. Hummelvoll-NuñezF
- 29G. WessehM
- 27Chris Irénée Ntamack PondyD
- 1J. HaugaardG
- 37S. InnværD
- 4V. SkjærvikD
- 21L. HienD
- 30I. VådebuD
- 29A. WarnerydD
- 5D. EdvardssonM
- 11R. JenssenM
- 70M. BjørloM
- 10T. NyhammerF
- 22H. LarsenF
- 7L. Olden LarsenF
- 12O. LauvliG
- 27M. MikkelsenD
- 24V. OsujiD
- 33M. JattaD
- 15V. ErlienF
- 17I. DahlqvistM
- 9D. BrautF
- 8J. GrundtM
Form going into Fredrikstad vs Tromso
Fredrikstad
- D1-1away to Valerenga20 September 2026
- D1-1Sarpsborg 08 FF13 September 2026
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt4 September 2026
- W4-1away to Lillestrom30 August 2026
Tromso
- W3-2Ham-Kam20 September 2026
- L3-5away to Rosenborg12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Kristiansund BK6 September 2026
- D0-0Sarpsborg 08 FF30 August 2026
What these results say
- Fredrikstad scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Fredrikstad conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Fredrikstad.
- Tromso failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Tromso conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 29 |
| 3 | Tromso | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 30 | +11 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fredrikstad vs Tromso
- 11 October 2026Fredrikstad 1–1 TromsoEliteserien
- 15 March 2026Tromso 4–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 2 August 2025Tromso 0–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 29 June 2025Fredrikstad 0–1 TromsoEliteserien
- 29 May 2024Tromso 3–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 25 May 2024Fredrikstad 0–0 TromsoEliteserien
Leading scorers: Fredrikstad and Tromso
Fredrikstad
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Tromso
GoalsAssists
- H. Larsen104
- J. Hjertø-Dahl72
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.