Concepción vs Union La Calera Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Concepción 1-1 Union La Calera.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Concepción, 29% draw, 18% Union La Calera — fair odds of 1.89, 3.45 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Concepción at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Concepción vs Union La Calera
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25N. ArayaG
- 4A. CáceresD
- 21N. RodríguezD
- 37F. GrilloD
- 29D. VarasD
- 18Y. RodríguezM
- 30E. EspinozaM
- 16M. SandovalM
- 20J. HenríquezM
- 23C. RiquelmeM
- 32J. LarriveyF
- 22M. DávilaM
- 19A. JaraF
- 40Franco CaceresF
- 12N. VelosoG
- 8F. MartínezM
- 9C. EscobarF
- 27D. AcostaF
- 3D. CarrascoD
- 24M. CavalleriF
- 1N. AvellanedaG
- 25C. DíazD
- 15J. SalomoniD
- 27D. GutiérrezD
- 4C. GutiérrezD
- 23R. PérezM
- 5C. MoyaM
- 20J. CruzM
- 11S. SáezM
- 17M. HiriartM
- 32B. FerreyraF
- 30Maximiliano FernandezF
- 12N. EspinozaG
- 19M. CamposF
- 21Valentino TorrenteM
- 6V. LavinD
- 8Y. LeivaM
- 7B. OyarzoF
- 3N. PalmaD
- 29J. SotoM
Form going into Concepción vs Union La Calera
Concepción
- D1-1away to Colo Colo13 September 2026
- L0-1Audax Italiano5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Nublense30 August 2026
- D1-1Coquimbo Unido23 August 2026
Union La Calera
- W1-0Deportes Limache14 September 2026
- L1-2away to O'Higgins6 September 2026
- L0-1Deportes La Serena31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Audax Italiano22 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Concepción had two goals or fewer.
- Concepción failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Concepción scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Union La Calera failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Union La Calera had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Concepción | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 32 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Concepción vs Union La Calera
- 11 October 2026Concepción 1–1 Union La CaleraPrimera División
- 14 April 2026Union La Calera 1–0 ConcepciónPrimera División
Leading scorers: Concepción and Union La Calera
Concepción
GoalsAssists
- J. Larrivey71
Union La Calera
GoalsAssists
- S. Sáez81
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.