Deportes Limache vs Palestino Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Deportes Limache 2-2 Palestino.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Deportes Limache, 25% draw, 30% Palestino — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes Limache at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportes Limache vs Palestino
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 17C. GonzálezG
- 33D. EscobarD
- 2A. AguirreD
- 24A. ParotD
- 11Javier RojasD
- 27T. GallettoM
- 6C. FuentesM
- 15V. ÁlvarezM
- 16J. MenesesM
- 19D. CastroM
- 9G. SosaF
- 5A. AlfonzoD
- 7C. MoralesD
- 21F. MoyaM
- 10L. ValenciaM
- 14H. MartínezM
- 32V. CárcamoM
- 1M. BórquezG
- 26M. ArturiaF
- 3B. MolinaD
- 25S. PérezG
- 7B. CarrascoD
- 2V. EspinozaD
- 3E. RocoD
- 28D. ZúñigaD
- 5D. GlabyM
- 18S. GallegosM
- 17M. EggelM
- 20G. TapiaM
- 27C. MunderM
- 9R. FernándezF
- 21M. ArayaF
- 11J. BenítezF
- 16J. BizamaD
- 4A. CezaD
- 23J. LeónD
- 8N. MezaM
- 15F. MontesM
- 30I. AlegriaF
- 1S. SalasG
Form going into Deportes Limache vs Palestino
Deportes Limache
- L0-1away to Union La Calera14 September 2026
- W3-0Cobresal7 September 2026
- W2-0Nublense3 September 2026
- L0-3Everton de Vina29 August 2026
Palestino
- L2-3Universidad Catolica12 September 2026
- W2-1Universidad de Concepcion6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Cobresal28 August 2026
- W1-0away to O'Higgins23 August 2026
What these results say
- Palestino scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Palestino conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 34 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportes Limache vs Palestino
- 11 October 2026Deportes Limache 2–2 PalestinoPrimera División
- 12 May 2026Palestino 3–2 Deportes LimacheCopa De La Liga
- 12 April 2026Palestino 1–0 Deportes LimachePrimera División
- 26 March 2026Deportes Limache 1–1 PalestinoCopa De La Liga
- 3 November 2025Palestino 2–1 Deportes LimachePrimera División
- 18 May 2025Deportes Limache 0–1 PalestinoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Deportes Limache and Palestino
Deportes Limache
GoalsAssists
- D. Castro137
- G. Sosa80
Palestino
GoalsAssists
- N. Da Silva82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.