Everton de Vina vs Deportes La Serena Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Everton de Vina 3-2 Deportes La Serena.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Everton de Vina, 24% draw, 21% Deportes La Serena — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Everton de Vina at 55% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Everton de Vina vs Deportes La Serena
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1I. GonzálezG
- 8L. SotoD
- 37V. VidalD
- 24D. OyarzúnD
- 14N. BaezaD
- 9J. AlfaroM
- 21B. BerríosM
- 7J. MoyaM
- 11E. RamosM
- 10A. MedinaM
- 30C. PalaciosF
- 6G. CharrupÃF
- 15V. FernándezD
- 5R. GonzálezD
- 25E. KirkmanG
- 28A. LeonM
- 4H. MagallanesD
- 29B. MartínezF
- 2Ó. OpazoD
- 20J. OvalleM
- 31J. TapiaG
- 34I. RassoD
- 5L. AlarcónD
- 33R. DelgadoD
- 21B. GutiérrezM
- 14F. ChamorroM
- 4F. Mac AllisterM
- 26F. DinamarcaM
- 23M. MarínF
- 2G. FigueroaF
- 10J. VargasF
- 29M. PintoD
- 11D. RubioF
- 7A. OrozF
- 1F. LanzillotaG
- 9Á. HenríquezF
- 16J. GutiérrezD
- 8G. EscalanteM
- 6S. DiazM
- 28Y. SalazarM
Form going into Everton de Vina vs Deportes La Serena
Everton de Vina
- W3-1away to Nublense12 September 2026
- L0-1Universidad Catolica5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Deportes Limache29 August 2026
- W3-1Universidad de Concepcion24 August 2026
Deportes La Serena
- L0-3Universidad de Chile13 September 2026
- W2-1Nublense6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Union La Calera31 August 2026
- D3-3Cobresal23 August 2026
What these results say
- Everton de Vina won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Everton de Vina scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Everton de Vina conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Deportes La Serena scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Deportes La Serena conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Deportes La Serena had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 39 |
| 11 | Deportes La Serena | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Everton de Vina vs Deportes La Serena
- 11 October 2026Everton de Vina 3–2 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
- 11 April 2026Deportes La Serena 1–0 Everton de VinaPrimera División
- 28 August 2025Everton de Vina 3–1 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
- 13 April 2025Deportes La Serena 2–1 Everton de VinaPrimera División
- 27 August 2022Everton de Vina 4–0 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
- 1 April 2022Deportes La Serena 1–3 Everton de VinaPrimera División
Leading scorers: Everton de Vina and Deportes La Serena
Everton de Vina
GoalsAssists
- A. Medina123
Deportes La Serena
GoalsAssists
- J. Vargas77
- F. Chamorro73
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.