UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal Primera División prediction & result
Final score: UTC Cajamarca 0-1 Sporting Cristal.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% UTC Cajamarca, 27% draw, 45% Sporting Cristal — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Cristal at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Á. CamposG
- 35G. ParedesD
- 3M. GanozaD
- 2B. DuarteD
- 6F. CavagnaD
- 15J. CerroM
- 16A. FigueraM
- 22D. CamachoM
- 10M. LliuyaM
- 7J. NunezM
- 9M. de JesúsF
- 11A. ArroyoF
- 88L. ArceM
- 29I. BarriosG
- 21R. BettocchiG
- 13D. CaroD
- 17L. GarroD
- 18S. GálvezF
- 19A. MuñozF
- 1D. EnríquezG
- 8L. SosaD
- 20M. AraujoD
- 5R. LutigerD
- 90Cris SilvaD
- 7S. GonzálezM
- 6A. ÁlvarezM
- 19Y. YotúnM
- 23M. CastroM
- 22M. HoyosF
- 16L. IbericoF
- 29H. BarcosF
- 33C. BautistaG
- 21C. CabellosM
- 77J. CuestaF
- 18J. GonzálezD
- 27GabrielM
- 25G. TávaraM
- 11I. ÁvilaF
- 96L. AbramD
Form going into UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal
UTC Cajamarca
- L2-3away to Sport Huancayo20 September 2026
- L1-2Juan Pablo II College11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Alianza Atletico4 September 2026
- L2-4Universitario29 August 2026
Sporting Cristal
- W3-1Atletico Grau19 September 2026
- W2-1away to UCV Moquegua13 September 2026
- W5-0Club Deportivo Los Chankas6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sport Boys30 August 2026
What these results say
- UTC Cajamarca did not win any of these 4 matches.
- UTC Cajamarca scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- UTC Cajamarca conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sporting Cristal won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sporting Cristal scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sporting Cristal conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 32 | 51 | -19 | 15 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 49 | 40 | +9 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal
- 11 October 2026UTC Cajamarca 0–1 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 19 April 2026Sporting Cristal 3–2 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 23 August 2025Sporting Cristal 2–2 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 6 April 2025UTC Cajamarca 4–1 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 25 August 2024Sporting Cristal 4–0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 31 March 2024UTC Cajamarca 1–2 Sporting CristalPrimera División
Leading scorers: UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal
UTC Cajamarca
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Sporting Cristal
GoalsAssists
- H. Barcos93
- L. Iberico70
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.