Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Gwangju FC 4-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Gwangju FC, 25% draw, 52% Ulsan Hyundai FC — fair odds of 4.35, 4.00 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ulsan Hyundai FC at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
Line-ups
- 23Kim Dong-HwaG
- 22Kwon Sung-YunD
- 39Min Sang-GiD
- 4T. van GrunsvenD
- 3Lee Min-GiD
- 40Shin Chang-MooM
- 10Choi Kyoung-RokM
- 14Yu Je-HoM
- 9Ha Seung-UnM
- 50A. Ba LouaF
- 18J. IredaleF
- 6Ahn Young-KyuD
- 11H. FriðjónssonF
- 8Ju Se-JongM
- 70Kim Woo-jinM
- 1Kim Kyeong-MinG
- 37Lee Yong-JickM
- 88Moon Min-seoM
- 33Park Won-JaeD
- 17João PedroD
- 21Jo Hyeon-WooG
- 96Choi Seok-HyunD
- 15Jung Seung-HyunD
- 19Kim Young-GwonD
- 26Cho Hyun-TaekD
- 6D. BojanićM
- 55T. Oude KotteM
- 33Jang Si-YoungM
- 10Lee Dong-GyeongM
- 11Erick FariasM
- 99Yago CarielloF
- 72Back In-WooM
- 1Choi Ju-hoG
- 17Kang Sang-WooD
- 14Lee Jin-HyunM
- 24Lee Gyu-SungM
- 28Lee Jae-IkD
- 8Lee Hui-GyunM
- 66M. TrojakD
- 2Yoon Jong-GyuD
Form going into Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
Gwangju FC
- D2-2away to Jeonbuk Motors20 September 2026
- D1-1FC Anyang13 September 2026
- L0-1Jeju United FC9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC6 September 2026
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- L1-2away to FC Anyang19 September 2026
- W2-1Incheon United12 September 2026
- W1-0FC Seoul8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jeju United FC5 September 2026
What these results say
- Gwangju FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Gwangju FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Gwangju FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Ulsan Hyundai FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 31 | 2 | 12 | 17 | 25 | 66 | -41 | 18 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 48 | 44 | +4 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
- 11 October 2026Gwangju FC 4–3 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
- 5 July 2026Gwangju FC 1–1 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
- 19 April 2026Ulsan Hyundai FC 5–1 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 22 November 2025Gwangju FC 2–0 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
- 18 October 2025Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–0 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 2 July 2025Gwangju FC 1–0 Ulsan Hyundai FCFA Cup
Leading scorers: Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC
Gwangju FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Iredale40
Ulsan Hyundai FC
GoalsAssists
- Yago Cariello91
- Lee Dong-Gyeong76
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.