Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Incheon United 3-0 Pohang Steelers.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Incheon United, 31% draw, 27% Pohang Steelers — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Incheon United at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers
Line-ups
- 1Kim Dong-HeonG
- 39Kim Myung-SunD
- 4Kim Geon-HuiD
- 2Juan FernándezD
- 32Lee Ju-YongD
- 17Kim Seong-MinM
- 5Lee Myung-JooM
- 26Lee Min-HyeokM
- 72Lee Chung-YongF
- 9S. MugošaF
- 70Leandro RibeiroF
- 13Choi Seung-GuD
- 99M. FerrierF
- 11GersoF
- 10Lee Dong-RyulF
- 3Lee Sang-GiD
- 21Lee Tae-HuiG
- 20Park Kyung-SubD
- 77Park Seung-HoF
- 15Seo Jae-MinM
- 21Hwang In-JaeG
- 2Eo Jeong-WonD
- 17Shin Kwang-HoonD
- 4Jeon Min-GwangD
- 20Park Chan-YongD
- 77WandersonD
- 31K. NishiyaM
- 40Ki Sung-YuengM
- 16Kim Dong-JinM
- 11Juninho RochaF
- 25Jorge LuizF
- 13Kang Min-JunD
- 8Kim Seung-HoM
- 3Ye-Sung KimD
- 14Lee Chang-WooD
- 10J. TranziskaF
- 37Jung Han-MinF
- 5Jin Si-wooD
- 29Hong Seong-MinG
- 9An Jae-JunF
Form going into Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers
Incheon United
- D0-0away to Gangwon FC27 September 2026
- D1-1Daejeon Citizen20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC12 September 2026
- W2-1Bucheon FC 19958 September 2026
Pohang Steelers
- W2-1FC Seoul20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Daejeon Citizen12 September 2026
- D0-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC9 September 2026
- L0-2away to Jeonbuk Motors5 September 2026
What these results say
- Incheon United failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Incheon United scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Incheon United conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Pohang Steelers failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Pohang Steelers conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Incheon United | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 42 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers
- 12 May 2026Incheon United 0–1 Pohang SteelersK League 1
- 15 March 2026Pohang Steelers 1–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 27 September 2024Pohang Steelers 1–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 23 June 2024Incheon United 1–3 Pohang SteelersK League 1
- 28 April 2024Pohang Steelers 0–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 20 October 2023Pohang Steelers 1–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
Leading scorers: Incheon United and Pohang Steelers
Incheon United
GoalsAssists
- S. Mugoša100
- M. Ferrier50
Pohang Steelers
GoalsAssists
- Lee Ho-Jae40
- J. Tranziska32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.