Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye Super League prediction & result
Final score: Sichuan Jiuniu 2-2 Henan Jianye.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Sichuan Jiuniu, 27% draw, 34% Henan Jianye — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sichuan Jiuniu at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye
Line-ups
- 13Peng PengG
- 16Miao TangD
- 15Rui YuD
- 3Gabriel XavierD
- 20Zhijian XuanD
- 6Junsheng YaoM
- 31Deabeas Owusu-SekyereM
- 8Tim ChowM
- 36Eden KarzevM
- 11Albion AdemiM
- 7Wesley MoraesF
- 19Zhang YufengM
- 10Dai Wai TsunM
- 14Li LongM
- 35Minzhe WeiG
- 1Jiabao JiG
- 46Huanming ShenD
- 25Jianfei ZhaoD
- 39Menghui YuM
- 2Tian YifanD
- 33Chenglong ShiG
- 4Yeljan ShinarD
- 2Iago MaidanaD
- 23Lucas MaiaD
- 11Nebijan MuhmetD
- 15Abraham HalikM
- 6Shangyuan WangM
- 29Dalun ZhengM
- 10Bruno NazárioM
- 8MaranhãoM
- 9GustavoF
- 13Abdurasul AbudulamM
- 7Yihao ZhongF
- 25Yilin YangM
- 24Congyao YinF
- 27Yixin LiuD
- 17Jinshuai WangG
- 18Gouming WangG
- 3Oliver GerbigD
- 5Liu JiahuiD
Form going into Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye
Sichuan Jiuniu
- D1-1away to Shandong Luneng5 September 2026
- L0-1SHANGHAI SIPG28 August 2026
- D1-1Hangzhou Greentown22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Shenyang Urban15 August 2026
Henan Jianye
- D1-1away to Wuhan Three Towns12 September 2026
- D0-0Chengdu Better City6 September 2026
- D1-1Chongqing Tongliang Long29 August 2026
- D4-4away to Shenyang Urban23 August 2026
What these results say
- Sichuan Jiuniu conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sichuan Jiuniu failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sichuan Jiuniu scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Henan Jianye went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Henan Jianye did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Henan Jianye scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 29 |
| 13 | Henan Jianye | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye
- 15 May 2026Henan Jianye 1–0 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 8 August 2025Henan Jianye 4–1 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 5 April 2025Sichuan Jiuniu 1–3 Henan JianyeSuper League
- 13 July 2024Sichuan Jiuniu 0–0 Henan JianyeSuper League
- 5 April 2024Henan Jianye 0–2 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 28 October 2021Sichuan Jiuniu 0–0 Henan JianyeFA Cup
Leading scorers: Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye
Sichuan Jiuniu
GoalsAssists
- Wesley Moraes125
Henan Jianye
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo135
- Bruno Nazário96
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The result against the call
Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Sichuan Jiuniu at 39% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Bruno Nazário 42' for Henan Jianye, Wesley Moraes 47' for Sichuan Jiuniu, Wesley Moraes 52' for Sichuan Jiuniu, Congyao Yin 76' for Henan Jianye. Sent off: Rui Yu (Sichuan Jiuniu) 16'.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.