Araz vs Kapaz Premyer Liqa prediction & result
Final score: Araz 0-2 Kapaz.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Araz, 26% draw, 26% Kapaz — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Araz at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Araz vs Kapaz
Araz
- L1-2away to Şamaxı FK20 September 2026
- D2-2Turan13 September 2026
- L2-3away to Qarabag6 September 2026
- L0-1Sabah FA31 August 2026
Kapaz
- D1-1Sumqayıt20 September 2026
- W1-0Qabala12 September 2026
- L1-4Şamaxı FK4 September 2026
- W1-0Turan30 August 2026
What these results say
- Araz did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Araz conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Araz scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Kapaz scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Kapaz had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Araz | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 2 |
| 6 | Kapaz | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Araz vs Kapaz
- 15 May 2026Araz 2–0 KapazPremyer Liqa
- 9 December 2025Araz 2–0 KapazPremyer Liqa
- 4 December 2025Araz 0–1 KapazCup
- 12 September 2025Kapaz 0–2 ArazPremyer Liqa
- 13 April 2025Kapaz 0–0 ArazPremyer Liqa
- 10 February 2025Araz 0–0 KapazPremyer Liqa
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.