Imisli FK vs Qarabag Premyer Liqa prediction & result
Final score: Imisli FK 0-2 Qarabag.
Before kick-off the model made it 17% Imisli FK, 24% draw, 59% Qarabag — fair odds of 5.88, 4.17 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Qarabag at 59% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1Y. Imanov
- 5I. Inqilably
- 23Diogo Rollo
- 19A. Salahly
- 9D. Dos Santos
- 6M. Yaw
- 77F. Nabiyev
- 14B. Hasanalizada
- 80Deco
- 13R. Viegas
- 21Ronaldo
- 22S. Mammadzada
- 70M. Tahirov
- 3T. Yusifli
- 42Y. Senin
- 17S. Faracov
- 33A. Eyubov
- 55M. Alakbarov
- 23M. Zlomislic
- 21O. Kashchuk
- 2Matheus Silva
- 22M. Qurbanly
- 20Kady Borges
- 35Pedro Bicalho
- 10J. Montiel
- 5B. Langa
- 25C. Makreckis
- 7J. Mouaddib
- 4B. Varkonyi
- 1S. Mahammadaliyev
- 55B. Huseynov
- 8M. Jankovic
- 29R. Cephas
- 9Z. Sawo
- 88S. Lobato
- 11R. Khadra
Form going into Imisli FK vs Qarabag
Imisli FK
- L1-3away to Sabah FA19 September 2026
- L2-3Neftchi Baku11 September 2026
- L1-2away to Qabala4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Safa Baku29 August 2026
Qarabag
- W1-0Safa Baku18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Zira13 September 2026
- W3-2Araz6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sumqayıt31 August 2026
What these results say
- Imisli FK scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Imisli FK failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Imisli FK conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Qarabag went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Qarabag scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Qarabag won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Imisli FK | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 3 | Qarabag | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Imisli FK vs Qarabag
- 11 October 2026Imisli FK 0–2 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 16 May 2026Qarabag 3–0 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
- 14 February 2026Imisli FK 0–1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 31 October 2025Qarabag 2–0 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.