Zira vs Şamaxı FK Premyer Liqa prediction & result
Final score: Zira 1-1 Şamaxı FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Zira, 28% draw, 24% Şamaxı FK — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Azerbaijan Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zira at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Zira vs Şamaxı FK
Zira
- L0-1away to Turan19 September 2026
- D1-1Qarabag13 September 2026
- L0-5away to Sabah FA5 September 2026
- W1-0Neftchi Baku30 August 2026
Şamaxı FK
- W2-1Araz20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sumqayıt12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Kapaz4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Qabala29 August 2026
What these results say
- Zira failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Zira conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Zira had two goals or fewer.
- Şamaxı FK went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Şamaxı FK scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Şamaxı FK conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Zira | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Şamaxı FK | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zira vs Şamaxı FK
- 7 April 2026Zira 1–1 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 13 December 2025Şamaxı FK 2–1 ZiraPremyer Liqa
- 19 September 2025Zira 2–1 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 30 March 2025Zira 3–0 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 24 January 2025Şamaxı FK 1–2 ZiraPremyer Liqa
- 4 December 2024Zira 3–1 Şamaxı FKCup
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.