Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA Premyer Liqa prediction & result
Final score: Neftchi Baku 0-0 Sabah FA.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Neftchi Baku, 25% draw, 39% Sabah FA — fair odds of 2.78, 4.00 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Azerbaijan Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sabah FA at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA
Neftchi Baku
- W3-0away to Qabala18 September 2026
- W3-2away to Imisli FK11 September 2026
- W4-1Safa Baku5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Zira30 August 2026
Sabah FA
- W3-1Imisli FK19 September 2026
- W3-0away to Safa Baku14 September 2026
- W5-0Zira5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Araz31 August 2026
What these results say
- Neftchi Baku won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Neftchi Baku scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Neftchi Baku conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sabah FA won every one of these 4 matches.
- Sabah FA scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sabah FA kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 16 |
| 2 | Sabah FA | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA
- 17 May 2026Sabah FA 1–2 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 8 December 2025Sabah FA 2–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 14 September 2025Neftchi Baku 0–0 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 24 May 2025Sabah FA 1–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 23 April 2025Sabah FA 1–1 Neftchi BakuCup
- 2 April 2025Neftchi Baku 1–2 Sabah FACup
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.