Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Fateh 0-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Before kick-off the model made it 17% Al-Fateh, 22% draw, 61% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 5.88, 4.55 and 1.64. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 61% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. ŠemperG
- 22Abdul Rahman Al KhaibariD
- 8M. LixandruD
- 17M. SaâdaneD
- 3K. BoatengD
- 78Abdulaziz Al SuwailemD
- 11M. BatnaM
- 6Ali Al HassanM
- 28Z. YoussoufM
- 10L. HaraslínM
- 9W. KangaF
- 25M. Al SahihiM
- 88Othman Al-OthmaM
- 7Fahad Al ZubaidiF
- 18Abdulaziz Al FawazM
- 94Waleed Al AnziG
- 80Faisal Al AbdulwahedM
- 49Saad Al SharfaF
- 87Sattam Al TumbuktiD
- 19R. KelderD
- 1Abdulrahman Al SanbiG
- 15Saeed BaattiaD
- 28M. DemiralD
- 5Mohammed BakorD
- 31Saad YaslamD
- 6V. Atangana EdoaM
- 30Ziyad Al JohaniM
- 7TrincãoM
- 20Matheus GonçalvesM
- 13GalenoM
- 17I. ToneyF
- 9Feras Al BrikanF
- 47Waheb SalehF
- 62Abdullah AbdoG
- 11Meshal Al MutairiF
- 19A. BondarenkoM
- 46Rayane HamidouD
- 21Abdullah RadifF
- 8E. SpertsyanM
- 29Mohammed YousefD
Form going into Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Fateh
- L2-4away to NEOM13 September 2026
- L1-2Al Diriyah9 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Taawon5 September 2026
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- W3-1Al-Hazm11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC8 September 2026
- W5-0Al Riyadh4 September 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Hilal1 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Al-Ahli Jeddah had three goals or more.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 6 May 2026Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–1 Al-FatehPro League
- 26 December 2025Al-Fateh 2–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 7 February 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–0 Al-FatehPro League
- 27 August 2024Al-Fateh 1–0 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 2 March 2024Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–1 Al-FatehPro League
- 2 September 2023Al-Fateh 5–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Fateh
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- I. Toney111
- Trincão52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.