Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Nassr 3-0 Al Diriyah.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Al-Nassr, 26% draw, 22% Al Diriyah — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Nassr at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24BentoG
- 12Nawaf BoushalD
- 3M. SimakanD
- 26Íñigo MartínezD
- 70Awad AmanD
- 21K. ComanM
- 17Abdullah Al KhaibariM
- 11Samú CostaM
- 10S. ManéM
- 79João FélixF
- 7Cristiano RonaldoF
- 94A. SufyaniF
- 14Sami Al NajiM
- 9Abdullah Al HamdanF
- 22Abdulhadi Ali Al AlwanG
- 6Saad Al NasserD
- 4Nader Al SharariD
- 60Saad HaqawiF
- 50Majed QasheeshD
- 23Ayman YahyaM
- 33Waleed AbdullahG
- 2Abdulaziz Al FarajD
- 19B. DjimsitiD
- 87Qassem LajamiD
- 99C. MbembaD
- 16Hussain Al SibyaniD
- 10A. BoulbinaM
- 5I. GueyeM
- 20E. MillotM
- 29D. NúñezF
- 14Óscar RodríguezF
- 6Sultan Al FarhanM
- 12T. WadiD
- 25L. ChelfiF
- 4Saeed Al RubaieD
- 52Hussain Al QahtaniM
- 75Meshari Al NemerF
- 78Khalid Al AsiriD
- 21Mohammed DhebanD
- 34Mansour Hibatullah Al SibyaniG
Form going into Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah
Al-Nassr
- D1-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat12 September 2026
- W2-1Abha9 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad5 September 2026
- W2-1Al Taawon28 August 2026
Al Diriyah
- D0-0Abha13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Al-Fateh9 September 2026
- L0-2Al-Qadisiyah FC3 September 2026
- W3-0away to Al-Ettifaq29 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Nassr scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al-Nassr conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Al-Nassr.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 9 | Al Diriyah | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah
- 18 August 2026Al Diriyah 1–4 Al-NassrKing's Cup
Leading scorers: Al-Nassr and Al Diriyah
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- Cristiano Ronaldo40
- Ângelo32
Al Diriyah
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.